Our Research

As Q2 progressed, the global crush environment underwent a complete reversal from the extremely depressed conditions of April/early May, reflecting various factors (discussed in prior industry notes). The domestic veg oil market outlook also materially…

Q2 was marked by an increasingly constructive environment for global crush and the Q3 outlook is much improved from late April/early May. Fundamentals for ADM’s Carbohydrates business likely improved throughout the period. However, we have…

Pricing during the H2 of CALM’s Q4 was weaker than we had originally anticipated and feed costs were somewhat higher. Further, we believe its results may have been pressured by lower fixed cost absorption (likely…

On a YTD basis, the DAR shares have fallen >25% as compared to a ~15% climb in the S&P, weighed upon by weak fats pricing and RD margins. They have fared better than Neste (down…

HRL reported a strong Q2 EPS beat on the back of much stronger-than-expected margins; sales were dramatically below estimates and retail volumes, in particular, disappointed. Mgmt guided to a weaker Q3 (raised mid-point of full-year)…

There have been notable shifts in the markets most relevant to our coverage over the past several weeks, and those markets have been particularly volatile reflecting, among other factors, the threat of a tighter global…

With the exception of beef processors, the protein industry is enjoying strong, even robust, profitability. Supply has been the key factor, but demand seems to have positively inflected, as well. In our view, this should…

We have trimmed our Q2 estimate by a penny, taking it to $0.34, $0.02 below consensus. Our full-year 2024 projection stays $1.61 and we have raised our 2025 projection to $1.75, $0.02 and $0.06 above…

Amidst multiple headwinds, Ingredion posted a solid Q1, albeit modestly below our projection; it also increased the low end of its guidance. EBIT declined nearly 1/3 from last year, largely reflecting pricing pressure in the…

GPRE reported a much weaker-than-expected Q1 reflecting weak ethanol margins. Management cited excessive industry supply and some company-specific production issues at certain plants. Further, feedstuff values have deteriorated under the weight of increased SBM production….

As expected, TSN reported strong Q2 upside relative to our estimate. The Chicken performance was much improved from the prior year, but the upside relative to us was driven by a much smaller-than-expected loss in…

PPC’s Q1 was below our estimate largely due to weaker than expected U.S. pricing. In our view, that was largely timing and we believe earnings growth this year will be robust on the back of…

ADM reported Q1 upside and reiterated full-year guidance. We have raised our 2024 estimate to $5.39 from $5.36 to account for the upside in Q1 ($0.01) and more constructive assumptions in the RSO business. Our…

As expected, Darling reported weak Q1 results; management also provided full-year consolidated EBITDA guidance of $1.3-$1.4B. We have raised our 2024 and 2025 EBITDA estimates to $1.39B and $1.67B, respectively, from $1.385B and $1.65B. Notably,…

As expected, BG reported strong Q1 upside, but did not alter its full-year guide. That is prudent, in our view, given an industry backdrop that is both much more challenged than in recent years, as…