Our Research

Bunge put up a surprisingly strong 1Q despite very weak Merchandising/Milling results (down yr/yr even w/Viterra, largely reflecting bunker fuel dislocation), as Soy and Softseed blew past expectations. The U.S. crush curve started to rally…

Pilgrim’s 1Q results materially trailed our already tempered expectations with the biggest miss in the U.S.; Europe also came in lower than expected. We had expected plant conversions (at the plant level and in live)…

Tyson posted FQ2 results ahead of us ($0.87 vs $0.82), with upside led by Chicken. Management emphasized mix and continued strength in its Cobb genetics business and stated results included no contribution from the Koch…

Smithfield reported a strong Q1, but management struck a more cautious tone on the outlook, particularly Q2, reflecting a more onerous and uncertain cost environment than just six weeks ago. Hog Production and Fresh Pork…

We have reduced our Q1 and full-year 2026 estimates to $2.55 ($2.63) and $11.01 ($11.04), respectively; our 2027 projection is unchanged. Our estimate is in line with Q1 guidance for a mid-teens yr/yr decline in…

We have modestly raised our 1Q’26 estimate to $0.95 ($0.92) to account for a stronger-than-expected cash crush environment in North America (>$1/bu improvement from the time of the Q4 call). We believe BG came into…

Despite a much stronger-than-expected domestic cash crush margin environment and strong bean exports, all of which ADM’s footprint is positioned to benefit from, we have reduced our Q1 estimate to $0.50 ($0.77) to reflect a…

We have raised our Q1 and full-year 2026 estimates, as well as our 2027 projection. Q1 EBITDA goes to $375M ($359M), while 2026 and 2027 go to $1.615B and $1.73B, respectively ($1.46B and $1.615B). Our…

We have reduced our Q2 estimate ($0.82 from $0.87) to reflect a less robust outlook for the International segment as we were previously unaware the prior year included a sizable nonrecurring benefit. The beef margin…

Smithfield reported 4Q results that handily beat HJR/consensus estimates despite meaningfully higher-than-expected corporate/unallocated expenses. The beat, relative to HJR, was largely driven by outperformance in Hog Production (profit/head of $22, well ahead of our $10…

JBS reported Q4 results nicely ahead of our expectations driven by outperformance in Australia and JBS Brasil. Within the latter, we believe lower-than-expected corporate expense was the primary driver versus our estimates, while Australia benefited…

Cal-Maine reported F3Q results that demonstrated the increasing efficacy of its transformation strategy against the backdrop of a sharp normalization in egg pricing from last year’s HPAI-driven peaks. Our estimates move higher, with F26/27 EPS…

After a long and angst/speculation-ridden wait, the EPA released its finalized RVOs last week. The rule was essentially in-line with expectations as details had been thoroughly leaked prior to publication. That said, the mandated D4…

Our coverage is greatly impacted by most global conflicts, given its intersection with global grain and energy markets. The Iran conflict’s impact on energy prices was immediate, but reverberations are expanding each day as critical…

Q3 fundamentals were better than we had anticipated as stronger retail feature, combined with additional bird flu outbreaks, helped tighten the S&D and propelled pricing higher. We have raised our Q3 estimate to $0.44 from…