Our Research

With the exception of beef processors, the protein industry is enjoying strong, even robust, profitability. Supply has been the key factor, but demand seems to have positively inflected, as well. In our view, this should…

We have trimmed our Q2 estimate by a penny, taking it to $0.34, $0.02 below consensus. Our full-year 2024 projection stays $1.61 and we have raised our 2025 projection to $1.75, $0.02 and $0.06 above…

Amidst multiple headwinds, Ingredion posted a solid Q1, albeit modestly below our projection; it also increased the low end of its guidance. EBIT declined nearly 1/3 from last year, largely reflecting pricing pressure in the…

GPRE reported a much weaker-than-expected Q1 reflecting weak ethanol margins. Management cited excessive industry supply and some company-specific production issues at certain plants. Further, feedstuff values have deteriorated under the weight of increased SBM production….

As expected, TSN reported strong Q2 upside relative to our estimate. The Chicken performance was much improved from the prior year, but the upside relative to us was driven by a much smaller-than-expected loss in…

PPC’s Q1 was below our estimate largely due to weaker than expected U.S. pricing. In our view, that was largely timing and we believe earnings growth this year will be robust on the back of…

ADM reported Q1 upside and reiterated full-year guidance. We have raised our 2024 estimate to $5.39 from $5.36 to account for the upside in Q1 ($0.01) and more constructive assumptions in the RSO business. Our…

As expected, Darling reported weak Q1 results; management also provided full-year consolidated EBITDA guidance of $1.3-$1.4B. We have raised our 2024 and 2025 EBITDA estimates to $1.39B and $1.67B, respectively, from $1.385B and $1.65B. Notably,…

As expected, BG reported strong Q1 upside, but did not alter its full-year guide. That is prudent, in our view, given an industry backdrop that is both much more challenged than in recent years, as…

Earnings season for our coverage kicks off this week with Bunge and DAR. Excepting DAR and GPRE, we expect upside for the quarter, but more important is the outlook; for each company, there are challenges,…

Earnings season for our coverage kicks off tomorrow with Bunge and the fundamental backdrop for our agribusiness coverage seems to be more uncertain with many more crosscurrents than usual. Excepting DAR and GPRE, we expect…

With the exception of beef packers (est losses in the $200-ish/head range), the protein complex has enjoyed robust margins. We estimate that the average BB broiler producer is generating profits approaching $0.30/lb, while small- and…

The workshop is ongoing at present, but yesterday at noon ET, CARB published a slide deck to accompany the workshop hosted today (from noon to 7p ET). The rule is not yet definitive, but the…

As we noted in our industry notes published earlier today, we are not utilizing the typical rating system, but instead, are using a forced rank process. This note shows current ranking based upon Friday’s close.

Broadly speaking, the environment has been very favorable for global agribusiness companies in recent years, spurred by a combination of both supply and demand factors. Specifically, weather-related supply disruptions in key production regions have been…