Our Research

We have raised our Q4 estimate (recall our projections are U.S. GAAP) as PPC’s Q4 results were better-than-expected; we also believe Seara and JBS Brasil performed somewhat better than previously anticipated. We did not change…

Q1 is not yet finished, but based upon QTD trends, we have revised our estimates lower. Our Q1 goes to $0.67 from $1.05 and our full-year estimate now equals $3.19 ($3.76). Our 2027 goes to…

HRL preannounced Q1 EPS ahead of CAGNY and full-year results February 26th. Relative to us, volumes disappointed in every segment, particularly Retail where volumes fell nearly 600bps yr/yr. Much of the decline was related to…

Hormel preannounced Q1 sales and earnings and EPS were $0.34, $0.02 ahead of HJR and consensus. No details were provided, so we are unable to offer much analysis of the report. However, below we detail…

Darling delivered a constructive Q4 with both the legacy business and DGD exceeding expectations. Further, the Q1 guide ($240-$250M for the core) was better than we had anticipated. The Q4 showing and Q1 guide in…

PPC delivered a materially stronger -than-expected Q4 on U.S. and Europe outperformance. The former was related to much higher-than-expected production and better pricing, while the robust European showing reflected extremely strong volumes (we estimate a…

ADM guided FY26 EPS to $3.60–$4.25, materially lower than our $4.00-$5.00 expectation. Regarding segments, management provided some directional color, but no specific targets. Relative to us, the lighter-than-expected full-year view largely reflected more muted Nutrition…

Bunge Q4 results were essentially in-line with expectations, but the F’26 guide ($7.50–$8.00) was lighter than we had anticipated. The shortfall was driven by a more subdued outlook for Australia and higher-than-expected guidance for interest…

INGR’s Q4 results and 2026 guidance reflect a broadly challenged consumer and cost environment, offset somewhat by solid T&HS demand and improved FX. LATAM EBIT surprised to the upside, but US/CAN was pressured by both…

TSN reported Q1 results modestly below our expectations, with the miss almost entirely attributable to Beef; other segments exceeded expectations. TSN implemented a change to its segment-level accounting (moved corp expense/amortization out of segments and…

S&D dynamics should remain favorable for much of our coverage in 2026, but we continue to believe full-year conditions will be looser than last year in both the U.S. and ROW. Given disease and weather,…

The landscape for our agribusiness coverage has been in near constant flux. Encouragingly, clarity in the most impactful area – biofuel policy – seems imminent and directionally bullish. Trade dynamics, however, have remained volatile and…

CALM reported Q2 results ahead of our projection driven by both higher-than-expected specialty pricing and internal production as a proportion of the total. Since the beginning of its Q3, pricing for conventional and cage-free shell…

Hormel’s Q4 results ($0.32) were materially below the prior year, but exceeded HJR/consensus estimates. Excluding the plant fire/recall impact, EPS were $0.35. The primary focus for investors into the quarter, however, was guidance. In previous…

During Q2, conventional egg pricing largely played out as we anticipated, but realized cage-free values likely came in modestly softer than we had expected as supply was somewhat looser than anticipated. Further, the capacity additions/optimizations…