Our Research

We have reduced our H2 and full-year 2026 estimates, as well as our 2027 projection. Slower-than-expected demand in the North American market, as well as somewhat higher costs, is the primary driver of a more…

Less than one month after its Q2 report, Smithfield preannounced weaker-than-expected Q3 results reflecting sustained weakness in pork margins and further deterioration in live hog production fundamentals, thereby starkly highlighting the unusually intense pressures besetting…

Approximately one month after its Q3 report, TSN preannounced disappointing Q4 results reflecting weaker demand in Chicken and more difficult market conditions for Pork (see our Smithfield note pubished today). Further, it anticipates substantial losses…

As detailed in prior notes (see our industry note published September 29 for our most up-to-date thoughts), the setup for U.S. broiler producers has greatly disappointed this year. H1 supply greatly exceeded expectations (up nearly…

We have adjusted our estimates for JBS reflecting a more cautious outlook for Pilgrim’s Pride (see our note published today), US Pork and JBS Brasil offset somewhat by a more constructive outlook for JBS Australia…

We have tweaked our Q3, which goes to $2.36 ($2.35); Q4 moves slightly lower leaving our full-year unchanged ($9.40); our 2027 is also unchanged. There was much intra-quarter volatility, but the Q4 curve is now…

Despite softer-than-expected fats pricing (we believe management contemplated some deterioration in guidance) and sequentially weaker Foods results, we have projected earnings from Darling’s core business toward the high-end of guidance ($335M, guide $325-$340M) as robust…

The backdrop for ADM continues to be constructive, although underlying crush and Ag Services fundamentals seem to be tracking closer to the middle of the guidance range than the high-end. Still, we have raised our…

CALM’s Q1’27 results were weaker than we had projected, as Specialty costs and corporate expense came in higher than we had anticipated. Conventional and PF results were largely in line. Management continued to emphasize its…

Over the past year, there has been a sharp reversal in domestic and global animal protein S&Ds. For a variety of reasons, supply has loosened considerably. In fact, the USDA recently increased its estimate for…

Due to generally robust balance sheets, we had anticipated some reluctance on the part of the table egg industry to rationalize supply even in the face of sharp losses. That has, in fact, proved to…

Although HRL reported better than-expected Q3 EPS, its volumes were materially weaker than we had projected and well below consensus. Our projection included the estimated impact from purposeful porfolio actions (whole birds, PL snack nuts,…

Last week, we spent the day with senior management at ADM, including CEO Juan Luciano and Greg Morris, President AS&O; we were also able to meet with some of Morris’ team. Our conversations were supportive…

Smithfield reported Q2 EPS of $0.62, beating HJR/consensus by $0.01, but EBIT missed our estimate by nearly $30M. The miss was broad-based, but was most pronounced in Hog Production and Fresh Pork. Management lowered full-year…

Hormel will report Q3 results Thursday, August 27. We have raised our full-year estimate to $1.50 ($1.47) as we believe a more favorable input cost environment should more than offset a weaker-than-expected top line. Our…