Our Research

HRL’s Q2 results were nicely ahead of HJR/cons est, driven primarily by stronger-than-anticipated turkey profitability, favorable mix and milder-than-expected freight cost pressures. It did not raise guidance, but noted it is tracking toward the upper…

JBS reported Q1 results modestly ahead of our estimates (EBITDA ~$30MM) had we adjusted our estimate for Pilgrim’s previously reported Q1 shortfall. Relative to us, outperformance was driven primarily by NA Beef/Pork and JBS Brasil,…

China’s latest (15th) Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) approved this past March echoed the 14th FYP’s emphasis upon foodstuff security as a priority. The latest iteration calls out diversification and modernization of agricultural systems as key to…

Over the past few months, the cost environment has become more onerous for the vast majority of companies and Hormel is no exception. Freight rates began to escalate early this year and the surge in…

INGR reported disappointing Q1 results and reduced its full-year guidance, which is highly unusual this early in the year. We had previously harbored concerns guidance could prove difficult to achieve, but believed any cut would…

Darling reported Q1 results that were a little better than expected on the core business. DGD came in ahead of our estimate on the heels of a large LCM adjustment, which was not in our…

ADM’s Q1 came in materially better than we had anticipated. The MTM hit was, as expected, very large ($275M), but AS&O still outperformed, while Ethanol was the biggest driver of the upside relative to our…

Bunge put up a surprisingly strong 1Q despite very weak Merchandising/Milling results (down yr/yr even w/Viterra, largely reflecting bunker fuel dislocation), as Soy and Softseed blew past expectations. The U.S. crush curve started to rally…

Pilgrim’s 1Q results materially trailed our already tempered expectations with the biggest miss in the U.S.; Europe also came in lower than expected. We had expected plant conversions (at the plant level and in live)…

Tyson posted FQ2 results ahead of us ($0.87 vs $0.82), with upside led by Chicken. Management emphasized mix and continued strength in its Cobb genetics business and stated results included no contribution from the Koch…

Smithfield reported a strong Q1, but management struck a more cautious tone on the outlook, particularly Q2, reflecting a more onerous and uncertain cost environment than just six weeks ago. Hog Production and Fresh Pork…

We have reduced our Q1 and full-year 2026 estimates to $2.55 ($2.63) and $11.01 ($11.04), respectively; our 2027 projection is unchanged. Our estimate is in line with Q1 guidance for a mid-teens yr/yr decline in…

We have modestly raised our 1Q’26 estimate to $0.95 ($0.92) to account for a stronger-than-expected cash crush environment in North America (>$1/bu improvement from the time of the Q4 call). We believe BG came into…

Despite a much stronger-than-expected domestic cash crush margin environment and strong bean exports, all of which ADM’s footprint is positioned to benefit from, we have reduced our Q1 estimate to $0.50 ($0.77) to reflect a…

We have raised our Q1 and full-year 2026 estimates, as well as our 2027 projection. Q1 EBITDA goes to $375M ($359M), while 2026 and 2027 go to $1.615B and $1.73B, respectively ($1.46B and $1.615B). Our…