Our Research

Although HRL reported better than-expected Q3 EPS, its volumes were materially weaker than we had projected and well below consensus. Our projection included the estimated impact from purposeful porfolio actions (whole birds, PL snack nuts,…

Last week, we spent the day with senior management at ADM, including CEO Juan Luciano and Greg Morris, President AS&O; we were also able to meet with some of Morris’ team. Our conversations were supportive…

Smithfield reported Q2 EPS of $0.62, beating HJR/consensus by $0.01, but EBIT missed our estimate by nearly $30M. The miss was broad-based, but was most pronounced in Hog Production and Fresh Pork. Management lowered full-year…

Hormel will report Q3 results Thursday, August 27. We have raised our full-year estimate to $1.50 ($1.47) as we believe a more favorable input cost environment should more than offset a weaker-than-expected top line. Our…

JBS reported 2Q26 EBITDA that modestly bested our projection (~$69MM). Outperformance was driven primarily by US Pork and Australia, while US Beef was spot on with our model. Notably, consensus remains comprised largely of IFRS-based…

ADM reported a very strong Q2, albeit modestly below our estimate on a smaller-than-expected MTM benefit. It also raised FY26 EPS guidance to $5.15-$5.60 ($4.15-$4.70), the midpoint of which was essentially in line with our…

Ingredion reported Q2 results that were better than expected, driven primarily by upside in the TH&S segment. Margins were strong and volume growth was robust – the 2-yr growth stack for the segment approximated 10%….

Tyson reported Q3 EPS a nickel ahead of our estimate, while the forward look was reduced by $100M at the midpoint. That reflects a $150M reduction in Beef partially offset by an increase for Prepared…

Darling put up robust Q2 results reflecting broad-based strength in the legacy business and DGD. Interestingly, the legacy Feed business showed greater yr/yr improvement than the underlying fats and meal markets would suggest, in our…

Pilgrim’s reported Q2 results below our expectations, with weakness across all three major regions. Mexico represented the largest miss; volumes were significantly stronger than anticipated but pricing was pressured by very heavy local production and…

BG reported Q2 EPS that exceeded both its guidance and consensus. Results were below our estimate, as we overestimated refined oil margins in ex-US markets. We continue to believe margins will strengthen as global veg…

CALM reported a much weaker-than-expected Q4 (loss of $0.78 vs our $0.10 projection). The preponderance of the miss relative to our estimate was driven by pricing, but we believe costs were higher than we had…

Despite an improved outlook on Beef (all three regions), our Q2 and full-year estimates move lower. Our Q2 EBITDA estimate (GAAP basis) goes ~5% lower, but our full-year 2026 projection declines just 1% as a…

We have reduced our Q2’26 estimate ahead of Smithfield’s upcoming results; our revised EBITDA and EPS forecasts move lower by $18M and $0.03, respectively, to $412M and $0.61. The reduction is driven by a more…

We have reduced our estimates for INGR as we believe demand was softer than expected, Argo production issues likely persisted throughout the quarter, and tapioca costs have surged due to crop disease (up ~60% from…