Our Research

We have reduced our estimates for INGR as we believe demand was softer than expected, Argo production issues likely persisted throughout the quarter, and tapioca costs have surged due to crop disease (up ~60% from…

We believe Darling’s core business likely performed much stronger than anticipated during Q2. Initially, management guided to EBITDA of $260-$275M, but due to fats pricing that can only be described as robust, as well as…

We have raised our Q2 estimate to $1.92 ($1.57) and our full-year 2026 and 2027 estimates go to $5.35 ($4.79 and $5.23, respectively). The primary driver of our Q2 revision is our view that both…

We have raised our Q2 estimate to $2.20 ($2.03) reflecting a better-than-expected crush environment, particularly in North America, offset somewhat by a more challenged Merchandising/Milling climate. Our full-year stays at $9.60 as a more bullish…

The U.S. chicken market continued to deteriorate throughout Q2 primarily reflecting heavier supply, but also demand deterioration. The market in Mexico did not fare much better either, again due to a combination of stronger supply…

We updated our Q3/full-year estimates for Tyson in mid-June, but based upon industry trends, we believe late-quarter profitability likely came in materially weaker than our projections anticipated. Consequently, we have once more reduced our Q3…

Q2 markets were characterized by continued margin deterioration. QTD broiler margins improved sequentially but currently lag the Q1 average. Both fresh pork and hog production margins contracted yr/yr and beef margins deteriorated further. Unsurprisingly, the…

The table egg market wound down CALM’s Q4 at record low pricing (inflation adjusted) as demand improvement lags supply recovery. Accordingly, we have reduced our estimates: our Q4 goes to $0.08 ($0.58) and our 2027…

Overall S/D conditions for the global protein complex have loosened considerably in recent months and commodity pricing/margins have softened. Still, we believe Tyson is relatively well positioned. We have reduced our Q3’26 estimate (Beef), but…

HRL’s Q2 results were nicely ahead of HJR/cons est, driven primarily by stronger-than-anticipated turkey profitability, favorable mix and milder-than-expected freight cost pressures. It did not raise guidance, but noted it is tracking toward the upper…

JBS reported Q1 results modestly ahead of our estimates (EBITDA ~$30MM) had we adjusted our estimate for Pilgrim’s previously reported Q1 shortfall. Relative to us, outperformance was driven primarily by NA Beef/Pork and JBS Brasil,…

China’s latest (15th) Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) approved this past March echoed the 14th FYP’s emphasis upon foodstuff security as a priority. The latest iteration calls out diversification and modernization of agricultural systems as key to…

Over the past few months, the cost environment has become more onerous for the vast majority of companies and Hormel is no exception. Freight rates began to escalate early this year and the surge in…

INGR reported disappointing Q1 results and reduced its full-year guidance, which is highly unusual this early in the year. We had previously harbored concerns guidance could prove difficult to achieve, but believed any cut would…

Darling reported Q1 results that were a little better than expected on the core business. DGD came in ahead of our estimate on the heels of a large LCM adjustment, which was not in our…