Smithfield Foods (SFD)

We have reduced our Q2’26 estimate ahead of Smithfield’s upcoming results; our revised EBITDA and EPS forecasts move lower by $18M and $0.03, respectively, to $412M and $0.61. The reduction is driven by a more…

Q2 markets were characterized by continued margin deterioration. QTD broiler margins improved sequentially but currently lag the Q1 average. Both fresh pork and hog production margins contracted yr/yr and beef margins deteriorated further. Unsurprisingly, the…

China’s latest (15th) Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) approved this past March echoed the 14th FYP’s emphasis upon foodstuff security as a priority. The latest iteration calls out diversification and modernization of agricultural systems as key to…

Smithfield reported a strong Q1, but management struck a more cautious tone on the outlook, particularly Q2, reflecting a more onerous and uncertain cost environment than just six weeks ago. Hog Production and Fresh Pork…

Smithfield reported 4Q results that handily beat HJR/consensus estimates despite meaningfully higher-than-expected corporate/unallocated expenses. The beat, relative to HJR, was largely driven by outperformance in Hog Production (profit/head of $22, well ahead of our $10…

Our coverage is greatly impacted by most global conflicts, given its intersection with global grain and energy markets. The Iran conflict’s impact on energy prices was immediate, but reverberations are expanding each day as critical…

S&D dynamics should remain favorable for much of our coverage in 2026, but we continue to believe full-year conditions will be looser than last year in both the U.S. and ROW. Given disease and weather,…

Smithfield reported robust Q3 earnings that were well ahead of both HJR and Street expectations. Relative to our estimate, the upside reflected materially better-than-expected Hog Production results, as well as much lower net corp/unallocated expense….

We have noted the disease impact on 2025 hog supply in multiple reports; this has resulted in a persistent over-estimation of on-the-ground numbers by the USDA this year. The supply constraint was expected to be…

Total domestic meat supply conditions have begun to ease in recent weeks despite tighter beef conditions. That largely reflects expanded chicken production, but is compounded by continued yr/yr deterioration in total net exports (exports less…