Smithfield Foods (SFD)

Smithfield’s Q3 EBIT modestly exceeded our projection reflecting lower-than-expected corp/unallocated expense and slightly higher earnings from Packaged Meats; both Hog Production and Fresh Pork trailed us. It essentially kept the midpoint of its full-year PM…

Less than one month after its Q2 report, Smithfield preannounced weaker-than-expected Q3 results reflecting sustained weakness in pork margins and further deterioration in live hog production fundamentals, thereby starkly highlighting the unusually intense pressures besetting…

Smithfield reported Q2 EPS of $0.62, beating HJR/consensus by $0.01, but EBIT missed our estimate by nearly $30M. The miss was broad-based, but was most pronounced in Hog Production and Fresh Pork. Management lowered full-year…

We have reduced our Q2’26 estimate ahead of Smithfield’s upcoming results; our revised EBITDA and EPS forecasts move lower by $18M and $0.03, respectively, to $412M and $0.61. The reduction is driven by a more…

Q2 markets were characterized by continued margin deterioration. QTD broiler margins improved sequentially but currently lag the Q1 average. Both fresh pork and hog production margins contracted yr/yr and beef margins deteriorated further. Unsurprisingly, the…

China’s latest (15th) Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) approved this past March echoed the 14th FYP’s emphasis upon foodstuff security as a priority. The latest iteration calls out diversification and modernization of agricultural systems as key to…

Smithfield reported a strong Q1, but management struck a more cautious tone on the outlook, particularly Q2, reflecting a more onerous and uncertain cost environment than just six weeks ago. Hog Production and Fresh Pork…

Smithfield reported 4Q results that handily beat HJR/consensus estimates despite meaningfully higher-than-expected corporate/unallocated expenses. The beat, relative to HJR, was largely driven by outperformance in Hog Production (profit/head of $22, well ahead of our $10…

Our coverage is greatly impacted by most global conflicts, given its intersection with global grain and energy markets. The Iran conflict’s impact on energy prices was immediate, but reverberations are expanding each day as critical…

S&D dynamics should remain favorable for much of our coverage in 2026, but we continue to believe full-year conditions will be looser than last year in both the U.S. and ROW. Given disease and weather,…