Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)

Earlier this week, ADM reported Q3 results and published the previously announced H2’24 and 2023 restatements. The latter were relatively minor and did not result in any material earnings revisions. Q3 EPS were $0.08 below…

In an early September WSJ Op-Ed, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK) laid out prospective policy ideas that warrant examination given his nomination to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) – his nomination…

Very elevated uncertainty is the overwhelming theme headed into Q3 earnings, whether that be related to biofuels policy (see our Ag Brief published yesterday), the Election or protein production. Below (cont’d pg 2) we offer…

Global, particularly domestic, biofuel markets are transitioning between two starkly different environments. U.S./European product/credit prices have been pressured by a weaker energy complex and excess credit inventories. Feedstock values have been stickier (much stronger yr/yr…

Despite a better-than-expected crush margin backdrop, we have reduced our Q3 and full-year 2024 estimates. Our Q3 goes to $1.17 ($1.42) and full-year to $5.11 ($5.26). We revised our Q4 estimate materially higher as we…

Given the ferocity of Hurricane Helene’s winds and its drenching rains, damage to the broiler industry that is concentrated in the Southeast is to be expected. The industry is no stranger to hurricane damage as…

2024 has borne a striking resemblance to 2014/2015 – sharp contraction in cattle herd (bottomed in 2014, down 9% from 2007 peak), dropping feed costs, bird flu and supply challenges within the broiler industry. This…

We had expected ADM’s Q2 results to materially trail the prior year, given a much more challenged industry backdrop combined with operational issues at some of its U.S. and European plants, but results were weaker…

Global ag is experiencing a hangover from the boom years of 2021 – 2023. Global supply is much looser, processing capacity continues to expand and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war has been largely blunted. …

Q2 was marked by an increasingly constructive environment for global crush and the Q3 outlook is much improved from late April/early May. Fundamentals for ADM’s Carbohydrates business likely improved throughout the period. However, we have…