Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)

China’s latest (15th) Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) approved this past March echoed the 14th FYP’s emphasis upon foodstuff security as a priority. The latest iteration calls out diversification and modernization of agricultural systems as key to…

ADM’s Q1 came in materially better than we had anticipated. The MTM hit was, as expected, very large ($275M), but AS&O still outperformed, while Ethanol was the biggest driver of the upside relative to our…

Despite a much stronger-than-expected domestic cash crush margin environment and strong bean exports, all of which ADM’s footprint is positioned to benefit from, we have reduced our Q1 estimate to $0.50 ($0.77) to reflect a…

After a long and angst/speculation-ridden wait, the EPA released its finalized RVOs last week. The rule was essentially in-line with expectations as details had been thoroughly leaked prior to publication. That said, the mandated D4…

Our coverage is greatly impacted by most global conflicts, given its intersection with global grain and energy markets. The Iran conflict’s impact on energy prices was immediate, but reverberations are expanding each day as critical…

ADM guided FY26 EPS to $3.60–$4.25, materially lower than our $4.00-$5.00 expectation. Regarding segments, management provided some directional color, but no specific targets. Relative to us, the lighter-than-expected full-year view largely reflected more muted Nutrition…

The landscape for our agribusiness coverage has been in near constant flux. Encouragingly, clarity in the most impactful area – biofuel policy – seems imminent and directionally bullish. Trade dynamics, however, have remained volatile and…

Last week, ADM posted mixed 3Q results, as stronger Ag Services performance and a recovery in ethanol were overshadowed by a mystifyingly poor quarter in Crush. It reduced guidance to $3.25-$3.50, which captured our $3.40…

The global grains/oilseed complex is currently characterized by excess production and processing capacity. Trade tensions has exacerbated the imbalance for U.S. producers. A massive, sustained new demand driver is required – genetics and improved agronomic…

Due to a more challenged environment on multiple fronts (global crush, export elevation and consumer demand), we have reduced our forward H2’25 and 2026 estimates for ADM. Certain of its businesses, such as handling and…