Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)

The recent RVO proposal laid out far more bullish targets than we had anticipated, and also put forward potential modifications to RIN values for imported fuels/feedstocks. That, combined with potential changes to 45Z rules, results…

Brazil’s farmers have long benefited from both the ability to produce 2-3 crops per year and relatively low land conversion costs. Technological improvements have fostered higher yields that have improved its cost profile further (BZ…

ADM reported better-than-expected Q1 EPS largely driven by corporate expense (adj for incentive comp expense reclassification from segments). It reiterated full-year guidance with a bias toward the low-end. Results would have been even better had…

ADM shareholders have been hammered by company-specific issues/controversy for well over a year and an increasingly challenged U.S. industry backdrop has only compounded the pain. Recent tariff developments have exacerbated the uncertainty and are bearish…

Post the ongoing build in global crush capacity (U.S. most pronounced), biofuel policy and crush margins have become inextricably linked. Edible oil demand growth is relatively meager, while global livestock production expansion currently materially lags…

ADM reported Q4 results in line with its most recently-revised guidance and its 2025 EPS guide ($4.00-$4.75) bracketed HJR and consensus estimates. Management’s anticipated quarterly cadence, however, implies H1 results well below both HJR and…

If Trump’s threat to impose sweeping 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico February 1 comes to fruition, it would potentially be hugely impactful to our coverage and a discussion is justified. It bears…

Our agribusiness coverage has been roiled by a combination of global biofuel policy shifts/uncertainty, growing global soy surplus/tighter corn supply, ongoing trade shifts, and the long anticipated fallout from aggressive capacity expansion. These have resulted…

The imminent changeover in Administrations is of greater import for our coverage universe than many other sectors as it portends material changes on multiple fronts, including regulatory policy (food and biofuels) and tariffs. Many of…

In this note, we update our estimates post ADM’s Q3 earnings call. Please see our November 22 note for a more detailed discussion of our view of ADM’s fundamentals and outlook. We have reduced our…