Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)

Despite a better-than-expected crush margin backdrop, we have reduced our Q3 and full-year 2024 estimates. Our Q3 goes to $1.17 ($1.42) and full-year to $5.11 ($5.26). We revised our Q4 estimate materially higher as we…

Given the ferocity of Hurricane Helene’s winds and its drenching rains, damage to the broiler industry that is concentrated in the Southeast is to be expected. The industry is no stranger to hurricane damage as…

2024 has borne a striking resemblance to 2014/2015 – sharp contraction in cattle herd (bottomed in 2014, down 9% from 2007 peak), dropping feed costs, bird flu and supply challenges within the broiler industry. This…

We had expected ADM’s Q2 results to materially trail the prior year, given a much more challenged industry backdrop combined with operational issues at some of its U.S. and European plants, but results were weaker…

Global ag is experiencing a hangover from the boom years of 2021 – 2023. Global supply is much looser, processing capacity continues to expand and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war has been largely blunted. …

Q2 was marked by an increasingly constructive environment for global crush and the Q3 outlook is much improved from late April/early May. Fundamentals for ADM’s Carbohydrates business likely improved throughout the period. However, we have…

There have been notable shifts in the markets most relevant to our coverage over the past several weeks, and those markets have been particularly volatile reflecting, among other factors, the threat of a tighter global…

ADM reported Q1 upside and reiterated full-year guidance. We have raised our 2024 estimate to $5.39 from $5.36 to account for the upside in Q1 ($0.01) and more constructive assumptions in the RSO business. Our…

Earnings season for our coverage kicks off this week with Bunge and DAR. Excepting DAR and GPRE, we expect upside for the quarter, but more important is the outlook; for each company, there are challenges,…

Earnings season for our coverage kicks off tomorrow with Bunge and the fundamental backdrop for our agribusiness coverage seems to be more uncertain with many more crosscurrents than usual. Excepting DAR and GPRE, we expect…