Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)

After a long and angst/speculation-ridden wait, the EPA released its finalized RVOs last week. The rule was essentially in-line with expectations as details had been thoroughly leaked prior to publication. That said, the mandated D4…

Our coverage is greatly impacted by most global conflicts, given its intersection with global grain and energy markets. The Iran conflict’s impact on energy prices was immediate, but reverberations are expanding each day as critical…

ADM guided FY26 EPS to $3.60–$4.25, materially lower than our $4.00-$5.00 expectation. Regarding segments, management provided some directional color, but no specific targets. Relative to us, the lighter-than-expected full-year view largely reflected more muted Nutrition…

The landscape for our agribusiness coverage has been in near constant flux. Encouragingly, clarity in the most impactful area – biofuel policy – seems imminent and directionally bullish. Trade dynamics, however, have remained volatile and…

Last week, ADM posted mixed 3Q results, as stronger Ag Services performance and a recovery in ethanol were overshadowed by a mystifyingly poor quarter in Crush. It reduced guidance to $3.25-$3.50, which captured our $3.40…

The global grains/oilseed complex is currently characterized by excess production and processing capacity. Trade tensions has exacerbated the imbalance for U.S. producers. A massive, sustained new demand driver is required – genetics and improved agronomic…

Due to a more challenged environment on multiple fronts (global crush, export elevation and consumer demand), we have reduced our forward H2’25 and 2026 estimates for ADM. Certain of its businesses, such as handling and…

ADM reported solid Q2 results and EPS were >10% ahead of our projection; the upside was primarily driven by below-the-line items, as EBT was <1%% ahead of us. Management revised guidance to ~$4 ($4-$4.75); we…

Late yesterday, Trump stated on Truth Social (likely in a nod to the MAHA cohort) that Coke agreed to start using cane sugar in ‘Coke in the U.S.’ Later, Coke released a comment stating details…

The last 18 – 24 months have been bruising for ADM as it has been battered by industry headwinds, as well as the fallout from its accounting woes and execution challenges. Still, it seems a…