Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)

Post the ongoing build in global crush capacity (U.S. most pronounced), biofuel policy and crush margins have become inextricably linked. Edible oil demand growth is relatively meager, while global livestock production expansion currently materially lags…

ADM reported Q4 results in line with its most recently-revised guidance and its 2025 EPS guide ($4.00-$4.75) bracketed HJR and consensus estimates. Management’s anticipated quarterly cadence, however, implies H1 results well below both HJR and…

If Trump’s threat to impose sweeping 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico February 1 comes to fruition, it would potentially be hugely impactful to our coverage and a discussion is justified. It bears…

Our agribusiness coverage has been roiled by a combination of global biofuel policy shifts/uncertainty, growing global soy surplus/tighter corn supply, ongoing trade shifts, and the long anticipated fallout from aggressive capacity expansion. These have resulted…

The imminent changeover in Administrations is of greater import for our coverage universe than many other sectors as it portends material changes on multiple fronts, including regulatory policy (food and biofuels) and tariffs. Many of…

In this note, we update our estimates post ADM’s Q3 earnings call. Please see our November 22 note for a more detailed discussion of our view of ADM’s fundamentals and outlook. We have reduced our…

Earlier this week, ADM reported Q3 results and published the previously announced H2’24 and 2023 restatements. The latter were relatively minor and did not result in any material earnings revisions. Q3 EPS were $0.08 below…

In an early September WSJ Op-Ed, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK) laid out prospective policy ideas that warrant examination given his nomination to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) – his nomination…

Very elevated uncertainty is the overwhelming theme headed into Q3 earnings, whether that be related to biofuels policy (see our Ag Brief published yesterday), the Election or protein production. Below (cont’d pg 2) we offer…

Global, particularly domestic, biofuel markets are transitioning between two starkly different environments. U.S./European product/credit prices have been pressured by a weaker energy complex and excess credit inventories. Feedstock values have been stickier (much stronger yr/yr…