Our Research

Global, particularly domestic, biofuel markets are transitioning between two starkly different environments. U.S./European product/credit prices have been pressured by a weaker energy complex and excess credit inventories. Feedstock values have been stickier (much stronger yr/yr…

We have adjusted our Q3 and full-year 2024 estimates for GPRE, as well as our 2025 projection. Since we last updated estimates, the corn curve has moved higher, while ethanol has moved lower. That has…

We believe Ingredion likely benefited from better-than-expected demand/margin conditions in its Mexico business during Q3 given a step up in HFCS demand there against a backdrop of broadly stronger beverage consumption. In addition, peer commentary…

Q4 beef and chicken fundamentals were better than we had anticipated; pork margins were better than expected, as well, but beef and chicken are the primary driver of our more constructive earnings outlook. We have…

In the U.S. chicken business, Q3 and early Q4 have played out in a very unusual way. Demand accelerated as the pivot within retail and foodservice away from beef grew more pronounced. Further, production has…

Cal-Maine’s Q1 results disappointed relative to both HJR and consensus; relative to HJR, feed costs came in materially lower than our estimate, but were more than offset by lower-than-expected price realization. We had attempted to…

2024 has been a banner year for highlighting the risks associated with businesses leveraged to government regulation/programs, even supportive ones. Despite the prospect of materially higher mandated demand in 2025, U.S. RD/BD margins have been…

There have been shifts within the broader portfolio, but net/net, our Q3 view is not materially changed (up $0.01). Our full-yr estimate is higher, however, as the Q4 crush margin outlook is substantially improved. We…

Despite a better-than-expected crush margin backdrop, we have reduced our Q3 and full-year 2024 estimates. Our Q3 goes to $1.17 ($1.42) and full-year to $5.11 ($5.26). We revised our Q4 estimate materially higher as we…

Given the ferocity of Hurricane Helene’s winds and its drenching rains, damage to the broiler industry that is concentrated in the Southeast is to be expected. The industry is no stranger to hurricane damage as…

Due to higher-than-expected egg prices, we have raised our Q1 estimate to $3.19 from $2.70 (cons $2.83) and our full-yr goes to $8.04 from $6.71. Pricing has fallen sharply over the past 2-3 weeks, but…

2024 has borne a striking resemblance to 2014/2015 – sharp contraction in cattle herd (bottomed in 2014, down 9% from 2007 peak), dropping feed costs, bird flu and supply challenges within the broiler industry. This…

Similarly to Q2, multiple factors depressed Hormel’s Q3 results sales and obscured relatively strong dynamics in the core. The top line missed on a greater-than-expected impact from lower whole bird and contract manufacturing sales, as…

Hormel has been buffeted by multiple challenges this year in addition to the overall consumer malaise affecting the entire industry. The weak whole bird market has been more of a headwind than expected and the…

GPRE reported Q2 results materially below consensus, but just $1M shy of HJR at the EBITDA line. We have raised our Q3 estimate slightly to account for a stronger-than-expected margin backdrop and left our Q4…