Our Research

Smithfield reported 4Q results that handily beat HJR/consensus estimates despite meaningfully higher-than-expected corporate/unallocated expenses. The beat, relative to HJR, was largely driven by outperformance in Hog Production (profit/head of $22, well ahead of our $10…

JBS reported Q4 results nicely ahead of our expectations driven by outperformance in Australia and JBS Brasil. Within the latter, we believe lower-than-expected corporate expense was the primary driver versus our estimates, while Australia benefited…

Cal-Maine reported F3Q results that demonstrated the increasing efficacy of its transformation strategy against the backdrop of a sharp normalization in egg pricing from last year’s HPAI-driven peaks. Our estimates move higher, with F26/27 EPS…

After a long and angst/speculation-ridden wait, the EPA released its finalized RVOs last week. The rule was essentially in-line with expectations as details had been thoroughly leaked prior to publication. That said, the mandated D4…

Our coverage is greatly impacted by most global conflicts, given its intersection with global grain and energy markets. The Iran conflict’s impact on energy prices was immediate, but reverberations are expanding each day as critical…

Q3 fundamentals were better than we had anticipated as stronger retail feature, combined with additional bird flu outbreaks, helped tighten the S&D and propelled pricing higher. We have raised our Q3 estimate to $0.44 from…

We have raised our Q4 estimate (recall our projections are U.S. GAAP) as PPC’s Q4 results were better-than-expected; we also believe Seara and JBS Brasil performed somewhat better than previously anticipated. We did not change…

Q1 is not yet finished, but based upon QTD trends, we have revised our estimates lower. Our Q1 goes to $0.67 from $1.05 and our full-year estimate now equals $3.19 ($3.76). Our 2027 goes to…

HRL preannounced Q1 EPS ahead of CAGNY and full-year results February 26th. Relative to us, volumes disappointed in every segment, particularly Retail where volumes fell nearly 600bps yr/yr. Much of the decline was related to…

Hormel preannounced Q1 sales and earnings and EPS were $0.34, $0.02 ahead of HJR and consensus. No details were provided, so we are unable to offer much analysis of the report. However, below we detail…

Darling delivered a constructive Q4 with both the legacy business and DGD exceeding expectations. Further, the Q1 guide ($240-$250M for the core) was better than we had anticipated. The Q4 showing and Q1 guide in…

PPC delivered a materially stronger -than-expected Q4 on U.S. and Europe outperformance. The former was related to much higher-than-expected production and better pricing, while the robust European showing reflected extremely strong volumes (we estimate a…

ADM guided FY26 EPS to $3.60–$4.25, materially lower than our $4.00-$5.00 expectation. Regarding segments, management provided some directional color, but no specific targets. Relative to us, the lighter-than-expected full-year view largely reflected more muted Nutrition…

Bunge Q4 results were essentially in-line with expectations, but the F’26 guide ($7.50–$8.00) was lighter than we had anticipated. The shortfall was driven by a more subdued outlook for Australia and higher-than-expected guidance for interest…

INGR’s Q4 results and 2026 guidance reflect a broadly challenged consumer and cost environment, offset somewhat by solid T&HS demand and improved FX. LATAM EBIT surprised to the upside, but US/CAN was pressured by both…