Our Research

Despite a better-than-expected crush margin backdrop, we have reduced our Q3 and full-year 2024 estimates. Our Q3 goes to $1.17 ($1.42) and full-year to $5.11 ($5.26). We revised our Q4 estimate materially higher as we…

Given the ferocity of Hurricane Helene’s winds and its drenching rains, damage to the broiler industry that is concentrated in the Southeast is to be expected. The industry is no stranger to hurricane damage as…

Due to higher-than-expected egg prices, we have raised our Q1 estimate to $3.19 from $2.70 (cons $2.83) and our full-yr goes to $8.04 from $6.71. Pricing has fallen sharply over the past 2-3 weeks, but…

2024 has borne a striking resemblance to 2014/2015 – sharp contraction in cattle herd (bottomed in 2014, down 9% from 2007 peak), dropping feed costs, bird flu and supply challenges within the broiler industry. This…

Similarly to Q2, multiple factors depressed Hormel’s Q3 results sales and obscured relatively strong dynamics in the core. The top line missed on a greater-than-expected impact from lower whole bird and contract manufacturing sales, as…

Hormel has been buffeted by multiple challenges this year in addition to the overall consumer malaise affecting the entire industry. The weak whole bird market has been more of a headwind than expected and the…

GPRE reported Q2 results materially below consensus, but just $1M shy of HJR at the EBITDA line. We have raised our Q3 estimate slightly to account for a stronger-than-expected margin backdrop and left our Q4…

Ingredion posted strong Q2 results propelled by improved volumes and margin expansion. Adjusted for the SK divestiture, volumes grew 5% as compared to a 1.9% decline in Q1; on a 2-yr stack, Q2 volumes declined…

Tyson reported stronger-than-expected Q3 results; the Chicken segment modestly underperformed our Street-high projection, while Pork drove the upside. Due to an improved outlook for Pork (efficiencies from Perry plant closure and ample hog supply), as…

Bunge’s Q2 came in much lower than we had projected ($1.73 vs $2.61). We had expected results to benefit from both a strong recovery in U.S. and Argentine crush margins, but it seems reports of…

We had expected ADM’s Q2 results to materially trail the prior year, given a much more challenged industry backdrop combined with operational issues at some of its U.S. and European plants, but results were weaker…

As expected, Pilgrim’s reported robust Q2 results propelled by both strong pricing and lower costs that bested our Street-high estimate. Adjusted interest expense (we excluded gain on open-market bond repurchase) also came in below our…

DAR reported Q2 EBITDA modestly below HJR/consensus, but reaffirmed full-year guidance of $1.3-$1.4B; includes Q1 Gelnex inventory adjustment. Q4 should be higher than Q3, given the cadence in the fats market and the likelihood that…

Global ag is experiencing a hangover from the boom years of 2021 – 2023. Global supply is much looser, processing capacity continues to expand and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war has been largely blunted. …

Although below us and consensus, CALM reported relatively strong Q4 results. Reported EPS were $2.32, equal to our projection, but our estimate did not include insurance recoveries (we exclude those as they are largely nonrecurring…