Our Research


June 25, 2024

DAR: Been Here Before – There’s Opportunity

By Heather Jones

On a YTD basis, the DAR shares have fallen >25% as compared to a ~15% climb in the S&P, weighed upon by weak fats pricing and RD margins. They have fared better than Neste (down…

Read More >>

June 8, 2024

HRL: Big Picture Focus

By Heather Jones

HRL reported a strong Q2 EPS beat on the back of much stronger-than-expected margins; sales were dramatically below estimates and retail volumes, in particular, disappointed. Mgmt guided to a weaker Q3 (raised mid-point of full-year)…

Read More >>

June 5, 2024

HJR Ag Brief: Crush Update

By Heather Jones

There have been notable shifts in the markets most relevant to our coverage over the past several weeks, and those markets have been particularly volatile reflecting, among other factors, the threat of a tighter global…

Read More >>

May 31, 2024

HJR Protein Roundup: The Haves & Have-Nots

By Heather Jones

With the exception of beef processors, the protein industry is enjoying strong, even robust, profitability. Supply has been the key factor, but demand seems to have positively inflected, as well. In our view, this should…

Read More >>

May 20, 2024

HRL: Q2 Est Below Consensus, but Longer-Term Outlook Increasingly Constructive

By Heather Jones

We have trimmed our Q2 estimate by a penny, taking it to $0.34, $0.02 below consensus. Our full-year 2024 projection stays $1.61 and we have raised our 2025 projection to $1.75, $0.02 and $0.06 above…

Read More >>

May 13, 2024

INGR: Solid Q1; Cost Outlook Somewhat More Challenged; Trimming Estimates

By Heather Jones

Amidst multiple headwinds, Ingredion posted a solid Q1, albeit modestly below our projection; it also increased the low end of its guidance. EBIT declined nearly 1/3 from last year, largely reflecting pricing pressure in the…

Read More >>

May 12, 2024

GPRE: Rough Q1; Nebraska Pipeline an Attractive Opportunity

By Heather Jones

GPRE reported a much weaker-than-expected Q1 reflecting weak ethanol margins. Management cited excessive industry supply and some company-specific production issues at certain plants. Further, feedstuff values have deteriorated under the weight of increased SBM production….

Read More >>

May 11, 2024

TSN: Doing Well Controlling Controllables; Some Things Simply Uncontrollable

By Heather Jones

As expected, TSN reported strong Q2 upside relative to our estimate. The Chicken performance was much improved from the prior year, but the upside relative to us was driven by a much smaller-than-expected loss in…

Read More >>

May 11, 2024

PPC: Seasonal Headwinds Likely, but Still Upside

By Heather Jones

PPC’s Q1 was below our estimate largely due to weaker than expected U.S. pricing. In our view, that was largely timing and we believe earnings growth this year will be robust on the back of…

Read More >>

May 8, 2024

ADM: Some Tailwinds, but Headwinds Remain

By Heather Jones

ADM reported Q1 upside and reiterated full-year guidance. We have raised our 2024 estimate to $5.39 from $5.36 to account for the upside in Q1 ($0.01) and more constructive assumptions in the RSO business. Our…

Read More >>

May 6, 2024

DAR: Won’t Be V-Shaped, but Inflection Coming

By Heather Jones

As expected, Darling reported weak Q1 results; management also provided full-year consolidated EBITDA guidance of $1.3-$1.4B. We have raised our 2024 and 2025 EBITDA estimates to $1.39B and $1.67B, respectively, from $1.385B and $1.65B. Notably,…

Read More >>

May 1, 2024

BG: Industry Outlook Murky & Dynamic, but Relative Positioning Strong

By Heather Jones

As expected, BG reported strong Q1 upside, but did not alter its full-year guide. That is prudent, in our view, given an industry backdrop that is both much more challenged than in recent years, as…

Read More >>

April 24, 2024

RD, Feedstocks and Feed Grains Discussion

By Heather Jones

Earnings season for our coverage kicks off this week with Bunge and DAR. Excepting DAR and GPRE, we expect upside for the quarter, but more important is the outlook; for each company, there are challenges,…

Read More >>

April 23, 2024

HJR Ag Brief: Many Crosscurrents; Crush Discussion

By Heather Jones

Earnings season for our coverage kicks off tomorrow with Bunge and the fundamental backdrop for our agribusiness coverage seems to be more uncertain with many more crosscurrents than usual. Excepting DAR and GPRE, we expect…

Read More >>

April 22, 2024

HJR Protein Roundup: Updated Supply Outlook; Demand Broadly ‘OK’, but Potential Challenges

By Heather Jones

With the exception of beef packers (est losses in the $200-ish/head range), the protein complex has enjoyed robust margins. We estimate that the average BB broiler producer is generating profits approaching $0.30/lb, while small- and…

Read More >>