Our Research

For multiple oft-discussed reasons, U.S. protein availability has been constrained which, combined with robust demand, has driven extremely strong pricing (and margins for chicken companies and hog producers). In recent months, supply conditions have loosened…

CALM reported strong Q4 upside and the primary driver, vis-a-vis our projection, was materially higher-than-expected internal production. Pricing came in modestly above our estimate, as well, and the share count was lower-than-projected. At the end…

Late yesterday, Trump stated on Truth Social (likely in a nod to the MAHA cohort) that Coke agreed to start using cane sugar in ‘Coke in the U.S.’ Later, Coke released a comment stating details…

We have modestly reduced our Q2’25 estimate ($2.89/$2.92) due to slightly more cautious assumptions for the LATAM business offset somewhat by a more benign FX backdrop. Our full-year 2025 and 2026 projections move higher, however,…

The last 18 – 24 months have been bruising for ADM as it has been battered by industry headwinds, as well as the fallout from its accounting woes and execution challenges. Still, it seems a…

The medium-term outlook for BG’s legacy business is much improved given the prospect of much more supportive U.S. biofuel policy. However, Q2 was much more challenging than anticipated largely reflecting weaker-than-expected results in Brazil. As…

Q3 beef market conditions were more challenged than we had anticipated and the disrupted flow of cattle from Mexico was likely the primary cause. It is true that exports continue to be weak (could weaken…

We have reduced our Q3 ($1.59/$1.69) and full-year 2025 ($5.25/$5.47) estimates, as well as our 2026 ($3.22/$3.50) projection. We trimmed our estimate for Mexico, but that was largely offset by a more bullish estimate for…

The fundamental backdrop has improved for Smithfield’s consolidated business and we have raised our full-year 2025 and 2026 estimates accordingly. The primary driver of our more bullish outlook is the improved setup for hog production….

We have updated our Q4’25 and 2026 estimates. Our Q4 goes to $6.25 ($5.72) and 2026 to $9.71 ($10.34). Our PT goes to $101. Although moderated somewhat given pullback in wholesale egg pricing, there has…

We are reducing our Q2, 2025 and 2026 estimates for DAR driven by weaker-than-expected DGD margins, as well as less robust assumptions for the Food business. Core Feed should show nice improvement from Q1 given…

The recent RVO proposal laid out far more bullish targets than we had anticipated, and also put forward potential modifications to RIN values for imported fuels/feedstocks. That, combined with potential changes to 45Z rules, results…

With the exception of Q1’24, Hormel’s EBIT has declined on a yr/yr basis for the past 10 quarters, while the consolidated drop in volumes goes back even further. Q2’25 volumes fell ~4% on an organic…

Brazil’s farmers have long benefited from both the ability to produce 2-3 crops per year and relatively low land conversion costs. Technological improvements have fostered higher yields that have improved its cost profile further (BZ…

Overall domestic consumer demand has been broadly weak, but meat has fared better due to diet changes. Recently, there are even indications meat demand is slowing in response to torrid price gains, as well as…