Our Research

Ingredion posted strong Q2 results propelled by improved volumes and margin expansion. Adjusted for the SK divestiture, volumes grew 5% as compared to a 1.9% decline in Q1; on a 2-yr stack, Q2 volumes declined…

Tyson reported stronger-than-expected Q3 results; the Chicken segment modestly underperformed our Street-high projection, while Pork drove the upside. Due to an improved outlook for Pork (efficiencies from Perry plant closure and ample hog supply), as…

Bunge’s Q2 came in much lower than we had projected ($1.73 vs $2.61). We had expected results to benefit from both a strong recovery in U.S. and Argentine crush margins, but it seems reports of…

We had expected ADM’s Q2 results to materially trail the prior year, given a much more challenged industry backdrop combined with operational issues at some of its U.S. and European plants, but results were weaker…

As expected, Pilgrim’s reported robust Q2 results propelled by both strong pricing and lower costs that bested our Street-high estimate. Adjusted interest expense (we excluded gain on open-market bond repurchase) also came in below our…

DAR reported Q2 EBITDA modestly below HJR/consensus, but reaffirmed full-year guidance of $1.3-$1.4B; includes Q1 Gelnex inventory adjustment. Q4 should be higher than Q3, given the cadence in the fats market and the likelihood that…

Global ag is experiencing a hangover from the boom years of 2021 – 2023. Global supply is much looser, processing capacity continues to expand and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war has been largely blunted. …

Although below us and consensus, CALM reported relatively strong Q4 results. Reported EPS were $2.32, equal to our projection, but our estimate did not include insurance recoveries (we exclude those as they are largely nonrecurring…

Q2 dynamics were more challenged than we had initially expected and we have reduced our projection. We have also reduced our full-year estimate as forward curves suggest a materially weaker Q4 than anticipated; Q3 results…

We believe Q2 fundamentals for INGR’s business were more favorable than during Q1. Adjusted for the South Korea divestiture, we estimate yr/yr volumes expanded at a nearly 5% clip, albeit against very easy compares. The…

Over the past few months, there has been a marked inflection in domestic broiler demand that combined with constrained supply has resulted in robust pricing and thereby, margins.  Producer margins have also been bolstered by…

Over the past few months, there has been a marked inflection in domestic broiler demand that, combined with constrained supply, has resulted in robust pricing and thereby, margins.  Margins have also been bolstered by a…

As Q2 progressed, the global crush environment underwent a complete reversal from the extremely depressed conditions of April/early May, reflecting various factors (discussed in prior industry notes). The domestic veg oil market outlook also materially…

Q2 was marked by an increasingly constructive environment for global crush and the Q3 outlook is much improved from late April/early May. Fundamentals for ADM’s Carbohydrates business likely improved throughout the period. However, we have…

Pricing during the H2 of CALM’s Q4 was weaker than we had originally anticipated and feed costs were somewhat higher. Further, we believe its results may have been pressured by lower fixed cost absorption (likely…