Our Research

Q3 results were strong with the upside driven equally by segment earnings and lower financing costs (working capital, higher cash, and a $10M – $20M YTD – FX benefit). Full-year guidance was raised to $10.35-$10.65….

GPRE’s Q3 EBITDA came in materially better than we had projected driven primarily by lower-than-expected corporate expense (some true-ups); ethanol was slightly better than anticipated, as well. We have reduced our Q4 estimate due to…

Hormel will report Q4 results in a few weeks and provide guidance for 2025. We expect management to project significant growth from 2024 and for guidance to anticipate substantial progress toward its T&I EBIT improvement…

Pilgrim’s reported impressive Q3 results that bested us by 7%; much stronger-than-expected results from Europe and Mexico more than offset a slight (2%) miss in the U.S. Continued favorable S/D backdrops in the U.S. and…

BG reported Q3 EPS upside driven, relative to HJR, largely by lower-than-expected corporate expense and a MTM tax true-up benefit. It tweaked guidance to ‘at least’ $9.25 from ~$9.25 despite lower-than-expected Q3 results and the…

DAR’s Q3 results disappointed materially relative to both HJR and consensus estimates. The Food segment and DGD drove the shortfall, reflecting weaker-than-expected pricing in the former. Regarding the DGD shortfall, we are not clear on…

Very elevated uncertainty is the overwhelming theme headed into Q3 earnings, whether that be related to biofuels policy (see our Ag Brief published yesterday), the Election or protein production. Below (cont’d pg 2) we offer…

Global, particularly domestic, biofuel markets are transitioning between two starkly different environments. U.S./European product/credit prices have been pressured by a weaker energy complex and excess credit inventories. Feedstock values have been stickier (much stronger yr/yr…

We have adjusted our Q3 and full-year 2024 estimates for GPRE, as well as our 2025 projection. Since we last updated estimates, the corn curve has moved higher, while ethanol has moved lower. That has…

We believe Ingredion likely benefited from better-than-expected demand/margin conditions in its Mexico business during Q3 given a step up in HFCS demand there against a backdrop of broadly stronger beverage consumption. In addition, peer commentary…

Q4 beef and chicken fundamentals were better than we had anticipated; pork margins were better than expected, as well, but beef and chicken are the primary driver of our more constructive earnings outlook. We have…

In the U.S. chicken business, Q3 and early Q4 have played out in a very unusual way. Demand accelerated as the pivot within retail and foodservice away from beef grew more pronounced. Further, production has…

Cal-Maine’s Q1 results disappointed relative to both HJR and consensus; relative to HJR, feed costs came in materially lower than our estimate, but were more than offset by lower-than-expected price realization. We had attempted to…

2024 has been a banner year for highlighting the risks associated with businesses leveraged to government regulation/programs, even supportive ones. Despite the prospect of materially higher mandated demand in 2025, U.S. RD/BD margins have been…

There have been shifts within the broader portfolio, but net/net, our Q3 view is not materially changed (up $0.01). Our full-yr estimate is higher, however, as the Q4 crush margin outlook is substantially improved. We…