Our Research

Post the ongoing build in global crush capacity (U.S. most pronounced), biofuel policy and crush margins have become inextricably linked. Edible oil demand growth is relatively meager, while global livestock production expansion currently materially lags…

Just three years ago, U.S. beef processors generated very robust margins that easily surpassed previous records. Now, the industry is beset by anemic cattle numbers, increased capacity and competitive threats on both the domestic and…

Our coverage universe never wants for drama, but the recent backdrop has been particularly tumultuous from supply backdrop to export prospects. YTD production has materially lagged expectations, but with the exception of turkey, the production…

Hormel reported Q1 results that fell short of both HJR and consensus estimates, although management noted it was in line with internal expectations. It did provide more detailed guidance for the out quarter (similar to…

Due to its size and escaping H5N1 relatively unscathed, Cal-Maine has been a key beneficiary of the acute domestic egg shortage. Although its earnings have soared, and are likely to remain buoyant for the foreseeable…

Pilgrim’s Q4 results were strong and bested our EPS and EBITDA estimates by 16% and 5%, respectively. Mexico drove the outperformance, as Europe came in somewhat lower than we had projected and U.S. was essentially…

The current domestic H5N1 outbreak could have been termed a crisis last year given the number of birds affected (about 40M table-egg layers alone), but little attention was paid outside industry circles. Following special call-outs…

DAR posted solid 4Q results last week, ahead of HJR estimates, which were recently revised lower. The beat was largely driven by the Feed segment, while DGD disappointed reflecting an LCM adjustment (previously announced by…

BG reported Q4 results that disappointed both relative to HJR/consensus and guidance; we believe it is the 1st time since Heckman assumed the CEO role that it has missed guidance and, in our view, is…

ADM reported Q4 results in line with its most recently-revised guidance and its 2025 EPS guide ($4.00-$4.75) bracketed HJR and consensus estimates. Management’s anticipated quarterly cadence, however, implies H1 results well below both HJR and…

Last week, INGR posted results ahead of consensus, with EPS besting our $2.56 estimate by ~3% and EBITDA ahead by 1%. The lower end of the Company’s F’25 EPS guide ($10.75-$11.55) implies growth materially below…

Over the past couple of months, there have been changes in the fundamentals underpinning much of Hormel’s business including: 1) improved outlook for MegaMex (recovery from F’24, which was down markedly from F’23); 2) improved…

Last week, Tyson posted strong Q1 results ahead of both HJR and consensus; it beat us and consensus by $0.07 and $0.23, respectively. EBITDA came in ~10% higher than our estimate (~16% higher than consensus). …

Effective immediately, we are terminating coverage of Green Plains Renewable Energy, reflecting a change in analyst focus. Our estimates and target price should no longer be relied upon.

If Trump’s threat to impose sweeping 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico February 1 comes to fruition, it would potentially be hugely impactful to our coverage and a discussion is justified. It bears…