Our Research

Bunge put up a materially stronger-than-expected Q1 due to lower-than-expected corporate expense and stronger Processing results. It maintained the full-year guide, but changed some components, including a material reduction in its full-year projected interest expense….

INGR reported a very strong Q1 with upside in all segments, but T&HS and LATAM were the standouts with >25% yr/yr growth during the period. Q1’24 was admittedly an easy comparison for those two segments,…

ADM reported better-than-expected Q1 EPS largely driven by corporate expense (adj for incentive comp expense reclassification from segments). It reiterated full-year guidance with a bias toward the low-end. Results would have been even better had…

Tyson reported strong Q2 results, $0.03 ahead of our Street-high estimate and more than a dime ahead of consensus. Yet, it did not raise full-year guidance and we view that as the primary cause of…

Pilgrim’s posted 1Q results below our/street estimates, missing HJR EPS and EBITDA by 4%/5%, respectively. All three regions drove the underperformance relative to our estimate, but the miss in Mexico was the largest on a…

Hormel’s full-year fundamentals are largely intact, in our view, but we are somewhat more cautious on full-year earnings from its turkey business. Both breast meat and whole bird pricing has responded strongly to an increasingly…

Smithfield posted strong Q1 results ahead of both HJR and consensus estimates (16%/6% ahead of HJR EPS/EBITDA). It demonstrated very strong improvement in its relative performance in its Fresh Pork and Hog Production segments. The…

Darling posted Q1 results materially below both HJR and consensus estimates, despite the bar moving progressively lower into the reporting period. The miss was driven by Feed and DGD ($0.06 vs HJR $0.30/gal). Despite the…

Following more than a decade’s absence from the public markets, Smithfield Foods was IPO’d by its Chinese parent, WH Group, early this year. We followed Smithfield for many years prior to the acquisition by WH…

CALM reported Q3 results essentially in line with our projection, but that was more a function of luck than modeling prowess as price came in shy of our estimate, while volumes were stronger. Looking forward,…

DAR is the most exposed name in our coverage to biofuel policy, as the vast majority of its earnings are derived from the sale of feedstocks or RD/SAF. Consequently, its Q1 results were negatively impacted…

The INGR shares have been punished by overarching trade news since “Liberation Day” and there are certainly risks. We are monitoring currencies, tariff headlines, policy developments and the int’l consumer (puts/takes with potential trade-down offsets),…

We have reduced our Q1 estimate ($1.36/$1.46) for PPC to reflect weaker conditions in the Mexico market late in the quarter, as well as our belief that costs in the U.S. business likely continued to…

Our consolidated view for Tyson’s Q2 results is essentially unchanged, but the components have shifted from our last update. Beef trends were more challenged than expected during the quarter and we expect Tyson to generate…

ADM shareholders have been hammered by company-specific issues/controversy for well over a year and an increasingly challenged U.S. industry backdrop has only compounded the pain. Recent tariff developments have exacerbated the uncertainty and are bearish…