Our Research

Last week, ADM posted mixed 3Q results, as stronger Ag Services performance and a recovery in ethanol were overshadowed by a mystifyingly poor quarter in Crush. It reduced guidance to $3.25-$3.50, which captured our $3.40…

Bunge’s Q3 results displayed the power of execution. Its EBIT was bolstered by the inclusion of Viterra assets (impact not specifically quantified), but management’s commentary seemed to imply that much of the yr/yr increase (>50%,…

INGR posted disappointing Q3 results reflecting lingering issues at its Argo facility, as well as some demand challenges in the U.S. and LatAm. As expected, it narrowed its full-yr guidance while keeping the low end…

We are initiating coverage of JBS, the largest animal protein producer in the world with operations that span much of the globe (55%-65% EBITDA derived from U.S. operations) and include most species, including cattle, chicken,…

Hormel once more revised its guidance lower ($0.08-$0.09), citing higher-than-expected raw material costs, a plant fire, recall and HPAI; we estimate that ~5% of its annualized turkey supply has been hit by bird flu in…

Pilgrim’s posted Q3 results ahead of both our and consensus estimates. Relative to us, the beat was driven by a much improved cost performance in the U.S. operations as both Mexico and Europe put up…

Smithfield reported robust Q3 earnings that were well ahead of both HJR and Street expectations. Relative to our estimate, the upside reflected materially better-than-expected Hog Production results, as well as much lower net corp/unallocated expense….

Darling’s Q3 results reflected fairly solid execution across its core Feed and Food businesses, with offsets from weaker-than-expected performance at DGD due to a sizable LCM ($38M) and LIFO (not disclosed) impact. As we expected,…

Last week Bunge provided its eagerly anticipated earnings outlook update that incorporated Viterra. Based upon our conversations with investors, we believe the bar going into the day was $6.50 or lower (we were at $6.71,…

CALM reported Q1 earnings materially below our projection (we were below consensus), and we believe a greater-than-expected increase in cost-plus price arrangements was the primary culprit. In its 10-Q filing, management noted that market-based pricing…

The global grains/oilseed complex is currently characterized by excess production and processing capacity. Trade tensions has exacerbated the imbalance for U.S. producers. A massive, sustained new demand driver is required – genetics and improved agronomic…

Due to a more challenged environment on multiple fronts (global crush, export elevation and consumer demand), we have reduced our forward H2’25 and 2026 estimates for ADM. Certain of its businesses, such as handling and…

As noted in our companion industry piece published today, while the outlook for biofuel policy has, if anything, become more constructive, definitive clarity has been pushed out further. We expect finalized rules in early Q1…

Today, we published a companion industry report that details our broader thoughts on current fundamentals and the Q4’25 and 2026 outlook. In this note, we detail our estimate changes for Bunge. We have reduced our…

We have noted the disease impact on 2025 hog supply in multiple reports; this has resulted in a persistent over-estimation of on-the-ground numbers by the USDA this year. The supply constraint was expected to be…