Our Research

We had acknowledged the challenge related to input costs (esp bellies), but given pricing had begun to trend lower and HRL has firmly entrenched, timely pricing passthrough programs for the vast majority of its belly-related…

In recent months, the changes at Cal-Maine have been very significant and rapid, including a sizable value-add acquisition (Echo Lake), the installation of new Board members and new strategy officer (Keira Ulrich, formerly of Smithfield…

Smithfield reported a solid Q2 with consolidated EBIT essentially in line with our projection. Packaged Meats and Fresh Pork bested us, while Hog Production came in a little shy. Unallocated expense was materially higher than…

ADM reported solid Q2 results and EPS were >10% ahead of our projection; the upside was primarily driven by below-the-line items, as EBT was <1%% ahead of us. Management revised guidance to ~$4 ($4-$4.75); we…

Tyson reported strong Q3 upside driven by better-than-expected performance in every segment, particularly Beef and Chicken. It boosted its full-year consolidated EBIT view reflecting meaningfully stronger expectations for Chicken and Pork, offset somewhat by a…

We believe Hormel’s earnings recovery is very much intact. The company’s T&M initiative has yielded material savings and has helped blunt some of the impact from the Planters recall and very weak turkey fundamentals. Still,…

INGR reported Q2 EPS modestly shy of our projection, while its EBITDA bested us. LATAM and corporate expense underperformed relative to our estimate, whle the Texturant and Healthful Solutions (THS) segment handily outperformed and turned…

New World Screwworm (NWS) has garnered significant media attention over the past weeks, particularly following the second closure of US-Mexico livestock crossings in early July. The lack of live cattle entering the US has exacerbated…

Pilgrim’s reported better-than-expected Q2 results and the upside was driven – relative to our projection – primarily by Mexico. We have raised our full-year estimate by just a penny to $5.26 despite the upside, as…

BG reported a better-than-expected quarter – its late Q2 crush was not as locked up as we had assumed, and it was able to benefit from the surge in cash margins during the second half…

DAR’s Q2 results were modestly shy of our/consensus projections; it reduced full-year guidance ($1.05B-$1.1B from $1.25-$1.3B) to a level largely in line with expectations. However, the shares have since traded off nearly 15%. There have…

For multiple oft-discussed reasons, U.S. protein availability has been constrained which, combined with robust demand, has driven extremely strong pricing (and margins for chicken companies and hog producers). In recent months, supply conditions have loosened…

CALM reported strong Q4 upside and the primary driver, vis-a-vis our projection, was materially higher-than-expected internal production. Pricing came in modestly above our estimate, as well, and the share count was lower-than-projected. At the end…

Late yesterday, Trump stated on Truth Social (likely in a nod to the MAHA cohort) that Coke agreed to start using cane sugar in ‘Coke in the U.S.’ Later, Coke released a comment stating details…

We have modestly reduced our Q2’25 estimate ($2.89/$2.92) due to slightly more cautious assumptions for the LATAM business offset somewhat by a more benign FX backdrop. Our full-year 2025 and 2026 projections move higher, however,…