Our Research

The imminent changeover in Administrations is of greater import for our coverage universe than many other sectors as it portends material changes on multiple fronts, including regulatory policy (food and biofuels) and tariffs. Many of…

Ancora, an activist investor, has been a GPRE shareholder for approximately four years. In early 2023, it published a letter outlining its view that the GPRE shares were undervalued and proposed the company consider selling…

Hormel reported essentially in-line Q4 results; EBITDA missed our projection slightly, but bested consensus, while EPS was in line with HJR and consensus. Sales came in better-than-expected, but volumes missed due to International; retail and…

In this note, we update our estimates post ADM’s Q3 earnings call. Please see our November 22 note for a more detailed discussion of our view of ADM’s fundamentals and outlook. We have reduced our…

Bird flu’s jump to dairy herds has been a game changer for the egg industry, resulting in a nearly year-round threat. There have been multiple large outbreaks over the past month (very early in the…

Earlier this week, ADM reported Q3 results and published the previously announced H2’24 and 2023 restatements. The latter were relatively minor and did not result in any material earnings revisions. Q3 EPS were $0.08 below…

In an early September WSJ Op-Ed, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK) laid out prospective policy ideas that warrant examination given his nomination to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) – his nomination…

TSN reported a strong Q4 that bested HJR and consensus by $0.03 and $0.20, respectively. EBITDA came in ~5% below our estimate due to shortfalls in the Beef, Pork and Int’l businesses. 2025 guidance was…

Q3 results were strong with the upside driven equally by segment earnings and lower financing costs (working capital, higher cash, and a $10M – $20M YTD – FX benefit). Full-year guidance was raised to $10.35-$10.65….

GPRE’s Q3 EBITDA came in materially better than we had projected driven primarily by lower-than-expected corporate expense (some true-ups); ethanol was slightly better than anticipated, as well. We have reduced our Q4 estimate due to…

Hormel will report Q4 results in a few weeks and provide guidance for 2025. We expect management to project significant growth from 2024 and for guidance to anticipate substantial progress toward its T&I EBIT improvement…

Pilgrim’s reported impressive Q3 results that bested us by 7%; much stronger-than-expected results from Europe and Mexico more than offset a slight (2%) miss in the U.S. Continued favorable S/D backdrops in the U.S. and…

BG reported Q3 EPS upside driven, relative to HJR, largely by lower-than-expected corporate expense and a MTM tax true-up benefit. It tweaked guidance to ‘at least’ $9.25 from ~$9.25 despite lower-than-expected Q3 results and the…

DAR’s Q3 results disappointed materially relative to both HJR and consensus estimates. The Food segment and DGD drove the shortfall, reflecting weaker-than-expected pricing in the former. Regarding the DGD shortfall, we are not clear on…

Very elevated uncertainty is the overwhelming theme headed into Q3 earnings, whether that be related to biofuels policy (see our Ag Brief published yesterday), the Election or protein production. Below (cont’d pg 2) we offer…