Tyson Foods Inc (TSN)

We updated our Q3/full-year estimates for Tyson in mid-June, but based upon industry trends, we believe late-quarter profitability likely came in materially weaker than our projections anticipated. Consequently, we have once more reduced our Q3…

Q2 markets were characterized by continued margin deterioration. QTD broiler margins improved sequentially but currently lag the Q1 average. Both fresh pork and hog production margins contracted yr/yr and beef margins deteriorated further. Unsurprisingly, the…

Overall S/D conditions for the global protein complex have loosened considerably in recent months and commodity pricing/margins have softened. Still, we believe Tyson is relatively well positioned. We have reduced our Q3’26 estimate (Beef), but…

China’s latest (15th) Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) approved this past March echoed the 14th FYP’s emphasis upon foodstuff security as a priority. The latest iteration calls out diversification and modernization of agricultural systems as key to…

Tyson posted FQ2 results ahead of us ($0.87 vs $0.82), with upside led by Chicken. Management emphasized mix and continued strength in its Cobb genetics business and stated results included no contribution from the Koch…

We have reduced our Q2 estimate ($0.82 from $0.87) to reflect a less robust outlook for the International segment as we were previously unaware the prior year included a sizable nonrecurring benefit. The beef margin…

Our coverage is greatly impacted by most global conflicts, given its intersection with global grain and energy markets. The Iran conflict’s impact on energy prices was immediate, but reverberations are expanding each day as critical…

TSN reported Q1 results modestly below our expectations, with the miss almost entirely attributable to Beef; other segments exceeded expectations. TSN implemented a change to its segment-level accounting (moved corp expense/amortization out of segments and…

S&D dynamics should remain favorable for much of our coverage in 2026, but we continue to believe full-year conditions will be looser than last year in both the U.S. and ROW. Given disease and weather,…

Tyson’s Q4 results handily exceeded our estimate, which was materially higher than consensus. The upside was driven by Chicken, which generated EBIT nearly $100M higher than early-August guidance. Much better-than-expected late quarter growing conditions likely…