May 12, 2025
TSN: Q2 Overshadowed by Guidance Bump
Tyson reported strong Q2 results, $0.03 ahead of our Street-high estimate and more than a dime ahead of consensus. Yet, it did not raise full-year guidance and we view that as the primary cause of…
April 9, 2025
TSN: Q2 Preview, Updated Outlook
Our consolidated view for Tyson’s Q2 results is essentially unchanged, but the components have shifted from our last update. Beef trends were more challenged than expected during the quarter and we expect Tyson to generate…
March 24, 2025
HJR Protein: Beef’s Halcyon Days Forever Gone?
Just three years ago, U.S. beef processors generated very robust margins that easily surpassed previous records. Now, the industry is beset by anemic cattle numbers, increased capacity and competitive threats on both the domestic and…
March 20, 2025
HJR Protein Round-up: S/D Update
Our coverage universe never wants for drama, but the recent backdrop has been particularly tumultuous from supply backdrop to export prospects. YTD production has materially lagged expectations, but with the exception of turkey, the production…
February 18, 2025
Protein Roundup: Bird Flu – Enough is Enough
The current domestic H5N1 outbreak could have been termed a crisis last year given the number of birds affected (about 40M table-egg layers alone), but little attention was paid outside industry circles. Following special call-outs…
February 10, 2025
Updated Outlook, Estimates
Last week, Tyson posted strong Q1 results ahead of both HJR and consensus; it beat us and consensus by $0.07 and $0.23, respectively. EBITDA came in ~10% higher than our estimate (~16% higher than consensus). …
January 30, 2025
Potential Tariff Fallout
If Trump’s threat to impose sweeping 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico February 1 comes to fruition, it would potentially be hugely impactful to our coverage and a discussion is justified. It bears…
January 22, 2025
Protein Roundup: Comprehensive Outlook Update
2024 animal protein production was heavily influenced by multiple factors including disease, hurricanes to new feed additives that drove strong weight gains in beef. Early 2025 production has proved far from normal, as well –…
December 12, 2024
FX Exacerbating an Already Challenged U.S. Agribusiness Backdrop
The imminent changeover in Administrations is of greater import for our coverage universe than many other sectors as it portends material changes on multiple fronts, including regulatory policy (food and biofuels) and tariffs. Many of…
November 20, 2024
The RFK Calculus
In an early September WSJ Op-Ed, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK) laid out prospective policy ideas that warrant examination given his nomination to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) – his nomination…