Tyson Foods Inc (TSN)

The imminent changeover in Administrations is of greater import for our coverage universe than many other sectors as it portends material changes on multiple fronts, including regulatory policy (food and biofuels) and tariffs. Many of…

In an early September WSJ Op-Ed, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK) laid out prospective policy ideas that warrant examination given his nomination to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) – his nomination…

TSN reported a strong Q4 that bested HJR and consensus by $0.03 and $0.20, respectively. EBITDA came in ~5% below our estimate due to shortfalls in the Beef, Pork and Int’l businesses. 2025 guidance was…

Very elevated uncertainty is the overwhelming theme headed into Q3 earnings, whether that be related to biofuels policy (see our Ag Brief published yesterday), the Election or protein production. Below (cont’d pg 2) we offer…

Q4 beef and chicken fundamentals were better than we had anticipated; pork margins were better than expected, as well, but beef and chicken are the primary driver of our more constructive earnings outlook. We have…

Given the ferocity of Hurricane Helene’s winds and its drenching rains, damage to the broiler industry that is concentrated in the Southeast is to be expected. The industry is no stranger to hurricane damage as…

2024 has borne a striking resemblance to 2014/2015 – sharp contraction in cattle herd (bottomed in 2014, down 9% from 2007 peak), dropping feed costs, bird flu and supply challenges within the broiler industry. This…

Tyson reported stronger-than-expected Q3 results; the Chicken segment modestly underperformed our Street-high projection, while Pork drove the upside. Due to an improved outlook for Pork (efficiencies from Perry plant closure and ample hog supply), as…

Over the past few months, there has been a marked inflection in domestic broiler demand that, combined with constrained supply, has resulted in robust pricing and thereby, margins.  Margins have also been bolstered by a…

With the exception of beef processors, the protein industry is enjoying strong, even robust, profitability. Supply has been the key factor, but demand seems to have positively inflected, as well. In our view, this should…