Tyson Foods Inc (TSN)

Just three years ago, U.S. beef processors generated very robust margins that easily surpassed previous records. Now, the industry is beset by anemic cattle numbers, increased capacity and competitive threats on both the domestic and…

Our coverage universe never wants for drama, but the recent backdrop has been particularly tumultuous from supply backdrop to export prospects. YTD production has materially lagged expectations, but with the exception of turkey, the production…

The current domestic H5N1 outbreak could have been termed a crisis last year given the number of birds affected (about 40M table-egg layers alone), but little attention was paid outside industry circles. Following special call-outs…

Last week, Tyson posted strong Q1 results ahead of both HJR and consensus; it beat us and consensus by $0.07 and $0.23, respectively. EBITDA came in ~10% higher than our estimate (~16% higher than consensus). …

If Trump’s threat to impose sweeping 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico February 1 comes to fruition, it would potentially be hugely impactful to our coverage and a discussion is justified. It bears…

2024 animal protein production was heavily influenced by multiple factors including disease, hurricanes to new feed additives that drove strong weight gains in beef. Early 2025 production has proved far from normal, as well –…

The imminent changeover in Administrations is of greater import for our coverage universe than many other sectors as it portends material changes on multiple fronts, including regulatory policy (food and biofuels) and tariffs. Many of…

In an early September WSJ Op-Ed, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK) laid out prospective policy ideas that warrant examination given his nomination to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) – his nomination…

TSN reported a strong Q4 that bested HJR and consensus by $0.03 and $0.20, respectively. EBITDA came in ~5% below our estimate due to shortfalls in the Beef, Pork and Int’l businesses. 2025 guidance was…

Very elevated uncertainty is the overwhelming theme headed into Q3 earnings, whether that be related to biofuels policy (see our Ag Brief published yesterday), the Election or protein production. Below (cont’d pg 2) we offer…