September 25, 2025
TSN: Updated Outlook, Estimates
A late quarter move in beef margins likely pushed Q4 results ahead of our prior projection. Despite a late-quarter swoon, chicken pricing was also somewhat higher than we had anticipated. Consequently, we have raised our…
September 15, 2025
HJR Protein: Shifting Supply Dynamics
Total domestic meat supply conditions have begun to ease in recent weeks despite tighter beef conditions. That largely reflects expanded chicken production, but is compounded by continued yr/yr deterioration in total net exports (exports less…
August 18, 2025
TSN: Updated Outlook, Est.
Tyson reported strong Q3 upside driven by better-than-expected performance in every segment, particularly Beef and Chicken. It boosted its full-year consolidated EBIT view reflecting meaningfully stronger expectations for Chicken and Pork, offset somewhat by a…
August 13, 2025
HJR Protein: NWS Scourge Discussion
New World Screwworm (NWS) has garnered significant media attention over the past weeks, particularly following the second closure of US-Mexico livestock crossings in early July. The lack of live cattle entering the US has exacerbated…
July 30, 2025
HJR Protein: Supply Outlook Murky
For multiple oft-discussed reasons, U.S. protein availability has been constrained which, combined with robust demand, has driven extremely strong pricing (and margins for chicken companies and hog producers). In recent months, supply conditions have loosened…
July 8, 2025
TSN: Reducing Est; Beef Headwinds/Weaker Chicken Tailwinds
Q3 beef market conditions were more challenged than we had anticipated and the disrupted flow of cattle from Mexico was likely the primary cause. It is true that exports continue to be weak (could weaken…
May 30, 2025
BZ’s Competitive Advantage Accelerates as Logistics Cost Gap Shrinks
Brazil’s farmers have long benefited from both the ability to produce 2-3 crops per year and relatively low land conversion costs. Technological improvements have fostered higher yields that have improved its cost profile further (BZ…
May 28, 2025
Meat Demand Muted, but Pricing Supported by Multiple Cross-Species Supply Challenges
Overall domestic consumer demand has been broadly weak, but meat has fared better due to diet changes. Recently, there are even indications meat demand is slowing in response to torrid price gains, as well as…
May 12, 2025
TSN: Q2 Overshadowed by Guidance Bump
Tyson reported strong Q2 results, $0.03 ahead of our Street-high estimate and more than a dime ahead of consensus. Yet, it did not raise full-year guidance and we view that as the primary cause of…
April 9, 2025
TSN: Q2 Preview, Updated Outlook
Our consolidated view for Tyson’s Q2 results is essentially unchanged, but the components have shifted from our last update. Beef trends were more challenged than expected during the quarter and we expect Tyson to generate…