Smithfield Foods (SFD)

Smithfield reported 4Q results that handily beat HJR/consensus estimates despite meaningfully higher-than-expected corporate/unallocated expenses. The beat, relative to HJR, was largely driven by outperformance in Hog Production (profit/head of $22, well ahead of our $10…

Our coverage is greatly impacted by most global conflicts, given its intersection with global grain and energy markets. The Iran conflict’s impact on energy prices was immediate, but reverberations are expanding each day as critical…

S&D dynamics should remain favorable for much of our coverage in 2026, but we continue to believe full-year conditions will be looser than last year in both the U.S. and ROW. Given disease and weather,…

Smithfield reported robust Q3 earnings that were well ahead of both HJR and Street expectations. Relative to our estimate, the upside reflected materially better-than-expected Hog Production results, as well as much lower net corp/unallocated expense….

We have noted the disease impact on 2025 hog supply in multiple reports; this has resulted in a persistent over-estimation of on-the-ground numbers by the USDA this year. The supply constraint was expected to be…

Total domestic meat supply conditions have begun to ease in recent weeks despite tighter beef conditions. That largely reflects expanded chicken production, but is compounded by continued yr/yr deterioration in total net exports (exports less…

Smithfield reported a solid Q2 with consolidated EBIT essentially in line with our projection. Packaged Meats and Fresh Pork bested us, while Hog Production came in a little shy. Unallocated expense was materially higher than…

New World Screwworm (NWS) has garnered significant media attention over the past weeks, particularly following the second closure of US-Mexico livestock crossings in early July. The lack of live cattle entering the US has exacerbated…

For multiple oft-discussed reasons, U.S. protein availability has been constrained which, combined with robust demand, has driven extremely strong pricing (and margins for chicken companies and hog producers). In recent months, supply conditions have loosened…

The fundamental backdrop has improved for Smithfield’s consolidated business and we have raised our full-year 2025 and 2026 estimates accordingly. The primary driver of our more bullish outlook is the improved setup for hog production….