Smithfield Foods (SFD)

Smithfield reported robust Q3 earnings that were well ahead of both HJR and Street expectations. Relative to our estimate, the upside reflected materially better-than-expected Hog Production results, as well as much lower net corp/unallocated expense….

We have noted the disease impact on 2025 hog supply in multiple reports; this has resulted in a persistent over-estimation of on-the-ground numbers by the USDA this year. The supply constraint was expected to be…

Total domestic meat supply conditions have begun to ease in recent weeks despite tighter beef conditions. That largely reflects expanded chicken production, but is compounded by continued yr/yr deterioration in total net exports (exports less…

Smithfield reported a solid Q2 with consolidated EBIT essentially in line with our projection. Packaged Meats and Fresh Pork bested us, while Hog Production came in a little shy. Unallocated expense was materially higher than…

New World Screwworm (NWS) has garnered significant media attention over the past weeks, particularly following the second closure of US-Mexico livestock crossings in early July. The lack of live cattle entering the US has exacerbated…

For multiple oft-discussed reasons, U.S. protein availability has been constrained which, combined with robust demand, has driven extremely strong pricing (and margins for chicken companies and hog producers). In recent months, supply conditions have loosened…

The fundamental backdrop has improved for Smithfield’s consolidated business and we have raised our full-year 2025 and 2026 estimates accordingly. The primary driver of our more bullish outlook is the improved setup for hog production….

Brazil’s farmers have long benefited from both the ability to produce 2-3 crops per year and relatively low land conversion costs. Technological improvements have fostered higher yields that have improved its cost profile further (BZ…

Overall domestic consumer demand has been broadly weak, but meat has fared better due to diet changes. Recently, there are even indications meat demand is slowing in response to torrid price gains, as well as…

Smithfield posted strong Q1 results ahead of both HJR and consensus estimates (16%/6% ahead of HJR EPS/EBITDA). It demonstrated very strong improvement in its relative performance in its Fresh Pork and Hog Production segments. The…