May 7, 2025
PPC: Raising Estimates after a Noisy Quarter
Pilgrim’s posted 1Q results below our/street estimates, missing HJR EPS and EBITDA by 4%/5%, respectively. All three regions drove the underperformance relative to our estimate, but the miss in Mexico was the largest on a…
April 9, 2025
PPC: Q1 Preview, Updated Outlook
We have reduced our Q1 estimate ($1.36/$1.46) for PPC to reflect weaker conditions in the Mexico market late in the quarter, as well as our belief that costs in the U.S. business likely continued to…
March 24, 2025
HJR Protein: Beef’s Halcyon Days Forever Gone?
Just three years ago, U.S. beef processors generated very robust margins that easily surpassed previous records. Now, the industry is beset by anemic cattle numbers, increased capacity and competitive threats on both the domestic and…
March 20, 2025
HJR Protein Round-up: S/D Update
Our coverage universe never wants for drama, but the recent backdrop has been particularly tumultuous from supply backdrop to export prospects. YTD production has materially lagged expectations, but with the exception of turkey, the production…
February 19, 2025
PPC: Updated Outlook, Estimates
Pilgrim’s Q4 results were strong and bested our EPS and EBITDA estimates by 16% and 5%, respectively. Mexico drove the outperformance, as Europe came in somewhat lower than we had projected and U.S. was essentially…
February 18, 2025
Protein Roundup: Bird Flu – Enough is Enough
The current domestic H5N1 outbreak could have been termed a crisis last year given the number of birds affected (about 40M table-egg layers alone), but little attention was paid outside industry circles. Following special call-outs…
January 30, 2025
Potential Tariff Fallout
If Trump’s threat to impose sweeping 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico February 1 comes to fruition, it would potentially be hugely impactful to our coverage and a discussion is justified. It bears…
January 22, 2025
Protein Roundup: Comprehensive Outlook Update
2024 animal protein production was heavily influenced by multiple factors including disease, hurricanes to new feed additives that drove strong weight gains in beef. Early 2025 production has proved far from normal, as well –…
December 12, 2024
FX Exacerbating an Already Challenged U.S. Agribusiness Backdrop
The imminent changeover in Administrations is of greater import for our coverage universe than many other sectors as it portends material changes on multiple fronts, including regulatory policy (food and biofuels) and tariffs. Many of…
November 20, 2024
The RFK Calculus
In an early September WSJ Op-Ed, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK) laid out prospective policy ideas that warrant examination given his nomination to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) – his nomination…