Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)

2024 has borne a striking resemblance to 2014/2015 – sharp contraction in cattle herd (bottomed in 2014, down 9% from 2007 peak), dropping feed costs, bird flu and supply challenges within the broiler industry. This…

Similarly to Q2, multiple factors depressed Hormel’s Q3 results sales and obscured relatively strong dynamics in the core. The top line missed on a greater-than-expected impact from lower whole bird and contract manufacturing sales, as…

Hormel has been buffeted by multiple challenges this year in addition to the overall consumer malaise affecting the entire industry. The weak whole bird market has been more of a headwind than expected and the…

HRL reported a strong Q2 EPS beat on the back of much stronger-than-expected margins; sales were dramatically below estimates and retail volumes, in particular, disappointed. Mgmt guided to a weaker Q3 (raised mid-point of full-year)…

With the exception of beef processors, the protein industry is enjoying strong, even robust, profitability. Supply has been the key factor, but demand seems to have positively inflected, as well. In our view, this should…

We have trimmed our Q2 estimate by a penny, taking it to $0.34, $0.02 below consensus. Our full-year 2024 projection stays $1.61 and we have raised our 2025 projection to $1.75, $0.02 and $0.06 above…

With the exception of beef packers (est losses in the $200-ish/head range), the protein complex has enjoyed robust margins. We estimate that the average BB broiler producer is generating profits approaching $0.30/lb, while small- and…

As we noted in our industry notes published earlier today, we are not utilizing the typical rating system, but instead, are using a forced rank process. This note shows current ranking based upon Friday’s close.

For some time, Hormel’s earnings have been hamstrung by a number of issues ranging from the myriad COVID effects that reverberated through labor (Midwest meat packers were impacted unusually hard by labor shortages), logistics, packaging,…