December 12, 2024
FX Exacerbating an Already Challenged U.S. Agribusiness Backdrop
The imminent changeover in Administrations is of greater import for our coverage universe than many other sectors as it portends material changes on multiple fronts, including regulatory policy (food and biofuels) and tariffs. Many of…
December 10, 2024
HRL: Updated Outlook, Estimates
Hormel reported essentially in-line Q4 results; EBITDA missed our projection slightly, but bested consensus, while EPS was in line with HJR and consensus. Sales came in better-than-expected, but volumes missed due to International; retail and…
November 20, 2024
The RFK Calculus
In an early September WSJ Op-Ed, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK) laid out prospective policy ideas that warrant examination given his nomination to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) – his nomination…
November 12, 2024
HRL: Earnings Preview, Updated Outlook
Hormel will report Q4 results in a few weeks and provide guidance for 2025. We expect management to project significant growth from 2024 and for guidance to anticipate substantial progress toward its T&I EBIT improvement…
October 4, 2024
HJR Protein Roundup: Helene Take
Given the ferocity of Hurricane Helene’s winds and its drenching rains, damage to the broiler industry that is concentrated in the Southeast is to be expected. The industry is no stranger to hurricane damage as…
September 13, 2024
HJR Protein Roundup: Production Outlook
2024 has borne a striking resemblance to 2014/2015 – sharp contraction in cattle herd (bottomed in 2014, down 9% from 2007 peak), dropping feed costs, bird flu and supply challenges within the broiler industry. This…
September 12, 2024
HRL: Updated Estimates, Outlook
Similarly to Q2, multiple factors depressed Hormel’s Q3 results sales and obscured relatively strong dynamics in the core. The top line missed on a greater-than-expected impact from lower whole bird and contract manufacturing sales, as…
August 26, 2024
Adj Est; ’24 Sales Guide a Risk, but 2025 View Intact
Hormel has been buffeted by multiple challenges this year in addition to the overall consumer malaise affecting the entire industry. The weak whole bird market has been more of a headwind than expected and the…
June 8, 2024
HRL: Big Picture Focus
HRL reported a strong Q2 EPS beat on the back of much stronger-than-expected margins; sales were dramatically below estimates and retail volumes, in particular, disappointed. Mgmt guided to a weaker Q3 (raised mid-point of full-year)…
May 31, 2024
HJR Protein Roundup: The Haves & Have-Nots
With the exception of beef processors, the protein industry is enjoying strong, even robust, profitability. Supply has been the key factor, but demand seems to have positively inflected, as well. In our view, this should…