Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE)

2024 has borne a striking resemblance to 2014/2015 – sharp contraction in cattle herd (bottomed in 2014, down 9% from 2007 peak), dropping feed costs, bird flu and supply challenges within the broiler industry. This…

GPRE reported Q2 results materially below consensus, but just $1M shy of HJR at the EBITDA line. We have raised our Q3 estimate slightly to account for a stronger-than-expected margin backdrop and left our Q4…

Global ag is experiencing a hangover from the boom years of 2021 – 2023. Global supply is much looser, processing capacity continues to expand and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war has been largely blunted. …

Q2 dynamics were more challenged than we had initially expected and we have reduced our projection. We have also reduced our full-year estimate as forward curves suggest a materially weaker Q4 than anticipated; Q3 results…

There have been notable shifts in the markets most relevant to our coverage over the past several weeks, and those markets have been particularly volatile reflecting, among other factors, the threat of a tighter global…

GPRE reported a much weaker-than-expected Q1 reflecting weak ethanol margins. Management cited excessive industry supply and some company-specific production issues at certain plants. Further, feedstuff values have deteriorated under the weight of increased SBM production….

Earnings season for our coverage kicks off this week with Bunge and DAR. Excepting DAR and GPRE, we expect upside for the quarter, but more important is the outlook; for each company, there are challenges,…

Earnings season for our coverage kicks off tomorrow with Bunge and the fundamental backdrop for our agribusiness coverage seems to be more uncertain with many more crosscurrents than usual. Excepting DAR and GPRE, we expect…

The workshop is ongoing at present, but yesterday at noon ET, CARB published a slide deck to accompany the workshop hosted today (from noon to 7p ET). The rule is not yet definitive, but the…

As we noted in our industry notes published earlier today, we are not utilizing the typical rating system, but instead, are using a forced rank process. This note shows current ranking based upon Friday’s close.