Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE)

Effective immediately, we are terminating coverage of Green Plains Renewable Energy, reflecting a change in analyst focus. Our estimates and target price should no longer be relied upon.

If Trump’s threat to impose sweeping 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico February 1 comes to fruition, it would potentially be hugely impactful to our coverage and a discussion is justified. It bears…

Our agribusiness coverage has been roiled by a combination of global biofuel policy shifts/uncertainty, growing global soy surplus/tighter corn supply, ongoing trade shifts, and the long anticipated fallout from aggressive capacity expansion. These have resulted…

The imminent changeover in Administrations is of greater import for our coverage universe than many other sectors as it portends material changes on multiple fronts, including regulatory policy (food and biofuels) and tariffs. Many of…

Ancora, an activist investor, has been a GPRE shareholder for approximately four years. In early 2023, it published a letter outlining its view that the GPRE shares were undervalued and proposed the company consider selling…

In an early September WSJ Op-Ed, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK) laid out prospective policy ideas that warrant examination given his nomination to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) – his nomination…

GPRE’s Q3 EBITDA came in materially better than we had projected driven primarily by lower-than-expected corporate expense (some true-ups); ethanol was slightly better than anticipated, as well. We have reduced our Q4 estimate due to…

Very elevated uncertainty is the overwhelming theme headed into Q3 earnings, whether that be related to biofuels policy (see our Ag Brief published yesterday), the Election or protein production. Below (cont’d pg 2) we offer…

Global, particularly domestic, biofuel markets are transitioning between two starkly different environments. U.S./European product/credit prices have been pressured by a weaker energy complex and excess credit inventories. Feedstock values have been stickier (much stronger yr/yr…

We have adjusted our Q3 and full-year 2024 estimates for GPRE, as well as our 2025 projection. Since we last updated estimates, the corn curve has moved higher, while ethanol has moved lower. That has…