Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE)

The imminent changeover in Administrations is of greater import for our coverage universe than many other sectors as it portends material changes on multiple fronts, including regulatory policy (food and biofuels) and tariffs. Many of…

Ancora, an activist investor, has been a GPRE shareholder for approximately four years. In early 2023, it published a letter outlining its view that the GPRE shares were undervalued and proposed the company consider selling…

In an early September WSJ Op-Ed, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK) laid out prospective policy ideas that warrant examination given his nomination to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) – his nomination…

GPRE’s Q3 EBITDA came in materially better than we had projected driven primarily by lower-than-expected corporate expense (some true-ups); ethanol was slightly better than anticipated, as well. We have reduced our Q4 estimate due to…

Very elevated uncertainty is the overwhelming theme headed into Q3 earnings, whether that be related to biofuels policy (see our Ag Brief published yesterday), the Election or protein production. Below (cont’d pg 2) we offer…

Global, particularly domestic, biofuel markets are transitioning between two starkly different environments. U.S./European product/credit prices have been pressured by a weaker energy complex and excess credit inventories. Feedstock values have been stickier (much stronger yr/yr…

We have adjusted our Q3 and full-year 2024 estimates for GPRE, as well as our 2025 projection. Since we last updated estimates, the corn curve has moved higher, while ethanol has moved lower. That has…

Given the ferocity of Hurricane Helene’s winds and its drenching rains, damage to the broiler industry that is concentrated in the Southeast is to be expected. The industry is no stranger to hurricane damage as…

2024 has borne a striking resemblance to 2014/2015 – sharp contraction in cattle herd (bottomed in 2014, down 9% from 2007 peak), dropping feed costs, bird flu and supply challenges within the broiler industry. This…

GPRE reported Q2 results materially below consensus, but just $1M shy of HJR at the EBITDA line. We have raised our Q3 estimate slightly to account for a stronger-than-expected margin backdrop and left our Q4…