January 30, 2025
Potential Tariff Fallout
If Trump’s threat to impose sweeping 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico February 1 comes to fruition, it would potentially be hugely impactful to our coverage and a discussion is justified. It bears…
January 22, 2025
Protein Roundup: Comprehensive Outlook Update
2024 animal protein production was heavily influenced by multiple factors including disease, hurricanes to new feed additives that drove strong weight gains in beef. Early 2025 production has proved far from normal, as well –…
January 21, 2025
Agribusiness Outlook Update; Estimate Revisions
Our agribusiness coverage has been roiled by a combination of global biofuel policy shifts/uncertainty, growing global soy surplus/tighter corn supply, ongoing trade shifts, and the long anticipated fallout from aggressive capacity expansion. These have resulted…
December 12, 2024
FX Exacerbating an Already Challenged U.S. Agribusiness Backdrop
The imminent changeover in Administrations is of greater import for our coverage universe than many other sectors as it portends material changes on multiple fronts, including regulatory policy (food and biofuels) and tariffs. Many of…
November 20, 2024
The RFK Calculus
In an early September WSJ Op-Ed, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK) laid out prospective policy ideas that warrant examination given his nomination to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) – his nomination…
October 23, 2024
Thoughts Into Earnings
Very elevated uncertainty is the overwhelming theme headed into Q3 earnings, whether that be related to biofuels policy (see our Ag Brief published yesterday), the Election or protein production. Below (cont’d pg 2) we offer…
October 22, 2024
HJR Ag-Brief: Biofuels Outlook Update
Global, particularly domestic, biofuel markets are transitioning between two starkly different environments. U.S./European product/credit prices have been pressured by a weaker energy complex and excess credit inventories. Feedstock values have been stickier (much stronger yr/yr…
October 4, 2024
HJR Protein Roundup: Helene Take
Given the ferocity of Hurricane Helene’s winds and its drenching rains, damage to the broiler industry that is concentrated in the Southeast is to be expected. The industry is no stranger to hurricane damage as…
September 13, 2024
HJR Protein Roundup: Production Outlook
2024 has borne a striking resemblance to 2014/2015 – sharp contraction in cattle herd (bottomed in 2014, down 9% from 2007 peak), dropping feed costs, bird flu and supply challenges within the broiler industry. This…
July 31, 2024
HJR Ag Brief
Global ag is experiencing a hangover from the boom years of 2021 – 2023. Global supply is much looser, processing capacity continues to expand and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war has been largely blunted. …