Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)

Q2 markets were characterized by continued margin deterioration. QTD broiler margins improved sequentially but currently lag the Q1 average. Both fresh pork and hog production margins contracted yr/yr and beef margins deteriorated further. Unsurprisingly, the…

The table egg market wound down CALM’s Q4 at record low pricing (inflation adjusted) as demand improvement lags supply recovery. Accordingly, we have reduced our estimates: our Q4 goes to $0.08 ($0.58) and our 2027…

China’s latest (15th) Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) approved this past March echoed the 14th FYP’s emphasis upon foodstuff security as a priority. The latest iteration calls out diversification and modernization of agricultural systems as key to…

Cal-Maine reported F3Q results that demonstrated the increasing efficacy of its transformation strategy against the backdrop of a sharp normalization in egg pricing from last year’s HPAI-driven peaks. Our estimates move higher, with F26/27 EPS…

Our coverage is greatly impacted by most global conflicts, given its intersection with global grain and energy markets. The Iran conflict’s impact on energy prices was immediate, but reverberations are expanding each day as critical…

Q3 fundamentals were better than we had anticipated as stronger retail feature, combined with additional bird flu outbreaks, helped tighten the S&D and propelled pricing higher. We have raised our Q3 estimate to $0.44 from…

S&D dynamics should remain favorable for much of our coverage in 2026, but we continue to believe full-year conditions will be looser than last year in both the U.S. and ROW. Given disease and weather,…

CALM reported Q2 results ahead of our projection driven by both higher-than-expected specialty pricing and internal production as a proportion of the total. Since the beginning of its Q3, pricing for conventional and cage-free shell…

During Q2, conventional egg pricing largely played out as we anticipated, but realized cage-free values likely came in modestly softer than we had expected as supply was somewhat looser than anticipated. Further, the capacity additions/optimizations…

CALM reported Q1 earnings materially below our projection (we were below consensus), and we believe a greater-than-expected increase in cost-plus price arrangements was the primary culprit. In its 10-Q filing, management noted that market-based pricing…