Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)

Total domestic meat supply conditions have begun to ease in recent weeks despite tighter beef conditions. That largely reflects expanded chicken production, but is compounded by continued yr/yr deterioration in total net exports (exports less…

In recent months, the changes at Cal-Maine have been very significant and rapid, including a sizable value-add acquisition (Echo Lake), the installation of new Board members and new strategy officer (Keira Ulrich, formerly of Smithfield…

New World Screwworm (NWS) has garnered significant media attention over the past weeks, particularly following the second closure of US-Mexico livestock crossings in early July. The lack of live cattle entering the US has exacerbated…

For multiple oft-discussed reasons, U.S. protein availability has been constrained which, combined with robust demand, has driven extremely strong pricing (and margins for chicken companies and hog producers). In recent months, supply conditions have loosened…

CALM reported strong Q4 upside and the primary driver, vis-a-vis our projection, was materially higher-than-expected internal production. Pricing came in modestly above our estimate, as well, and the share count was lower-than-projected. At the end…

We have updated our Q4’25 and 2026 estimates. Our Q4 goes to $6.25 ($5.72) and 2026 to $9.71 ($10.34). Our PT goes to $101. Although moderated somewhat given pullback in wholesale egg pricing, there has…

Brazil’s farmers have long benefited from both the ability to produce 2-3 crops per year and relatively low land conversion costs. Technological improvements have fostered higher yields that have improved its cost profile further (BZ…

Overall domestic consumer demand has been broadly weak, but meat has fared better due to diet changes. Recently, there are even indications meat demand is slowing in response to torrid price gains, as well as…

CALM reported Q3 results essentially in line with our projection, but that was more a function of luck than modeling prowess as price came in shy of our estimate, while volumes were stronger. Looking forward,…

Just three years ago, U.S. beef processors generated very robust margins that easily surpassed previous records. Now, the industry is beset by anemic cattle numbers, increased capacity and competitive threats on both the domestic and…