September 13, 2024
HJR Protein Roundup: Production Outlook
2024 has borne a striking resemblance to 2014/2015 – sharp contraction in cattle herd (bottomed in 2014, down 9% from 2007 peak), dropping feed costs, bird flu and supply challenges within the broiler industry. This…
July 29, 2024
CALM: When Bad News is Good
Although below us and consensus, CALM reported relatively strong Q4 results. Reported EPS were $2.32, equal to our projection, but our estimate did not include insurance recoveries (we exclude those as they are largely nonrecurring…
July 2, 2024
CALM: Updated Estimates, Outlook
Pricing during the H2 of CALM’s Q4 was weaker than we had originally anticipated and feed costs were somewhat higher. Further, we believe its results may have been pressured by lower fixed cost absorption (likely…
May 31, 2024
HJR Protein Roundup: The Haves & Have-Nots
With the exception of beef processors, the protein industry is enjoying strong, even robust, profitability. Supply has been the key factor, but demand seems to have positively inflected, as well. In our view, this should…
April 22, 2024
HJR Protein Roundup: Updated Supply Outlook; Demand Broadly ‘OK’, but Potential Challenges
With the exception of beef packers (est losses in the $200-ish/head range), the protein complex has enjoyed robust margins. We estimate that the average BB broiler producer is generating profits approaching $0.30/lb, while small- and…
April 8, 2024
Coverage Overview
As we noted in our industry notes published earlier today, we are not utilizing the typical rating system, but instead, are using a forced rank process. This note shows current ranking based upon Friday’s close.
April 8, 2024
CALM: Initiating Coverage, PT $61
Cal-Maine is a relatively quiet, low profile company, but it is the largest table egg producer in the U.S. and one of the best managed – oftentimes, it is instructive to learn what industry stakeholders…