March 24, 2025
HJR Protein: Beef’s Halcyon Days Forever Gone?
Just three years ago, U.S. beef processors generated very robust margins that easily surpassed previous records. Now, the industry is beset by anemic cattle numbers, increased capacity and competitive threats on both the domestic and…
March 20, 2025
HJR Protein Round-up: S/D Update
Our coverage universe never wants for drama, but the recent backdrop has been particularly tumultuous from supply backdrop to export prospects. YTD production has materially lagged expectations, but with the exception of turkey, the production…
March 7, 2025
CALM: Updated Estimates, Outlook
Due to its size and escaping H5N1 relatively unscathed, Cal-Maine has been a key beneficiary of the acute domestic egg shortage. Although its earnings have soared, and are likely to remain buoyant for the foreseeable…
February 18, 2025
Protein Roundup: Bird Flu – Enough is Enough
The current domestic H5N1 outbreak could have been termed a crisis last year given the number of birds affected (about 40M table-egg layers alone), but little attention was paid outside industry circles. Following special call-outs…
January 30, 2025
Potential Tariff Fallout
If Trump’s threat to impose sweeping 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico February 1 comes to fruition, it would potentially be hugely impactful to our coverage and a discussion is justified. It bears…
January 22, 2025
Protein Roundup: Comprehensive Outlook Update
2024 animal protein production was heavily influenced by multiple factors including disease, hurricanes to new feed additives that drove strong weight gains in beef. Early 2025 production has proved far from normal, as well –…
January 13, 2025
Answer: Yes, 2025 Will Surpass 2023
Excluding a contingency adjustment related to the Fassio acquisition, CALM reported Q2 EPS of $4.58, well ahead of consensus, but below our $4.80 estimate. Conventional pricing was materially ahead of our projection, but lower-than-expected produced…
December 12, 2024
FX Exacerbating an Already Challenged U.S. Agribusiness Backdrop
The imminent changeover in Administrations is of greater import for our coverage universe than many other sectors as it portends material changes on multiple fronts, including regulatory policy (food and biofuels) and tariffs. Many of…
December 9, 2024
CALM: Could 2025 Surpass 2023?
Bird flu’s jump to dairy herds has been a game changer for the egg industry, resulting in a nearly year-round threat. There have been multiple large outbreaks over the past month (very early in the…
November 20, 2024
The RFK Calculus
In an early September WSJ Op-Ed, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK) laid out prospective policy ideas that warrant examination given his nomination to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) – his nomination…