Bunge Limited (BG)

Our coverage is greatly impacted by most global conflicts, given its intersection with global grain and energy markets. The Iran conflict’s impact on energy prices was immediate, but reverberations are expanding each day as critical…

Bunge Q4 results were essentially in-line with expectations, but the F’26 guide ($7.50–$8.00) was lighter than we had anticipated. The shortfall was driven by a more subdued outlook for Australia and higher-than-expected guidance for interest…

The landscape for our agribusiness coverage has been in near constant flux. Encouragingly, clarity in the most impactful area – biofuel policy – seems imminent and directionally bullish. Trade dynamics, however, have remained volatile and…

Bunge’s Q3 results displayed the power of execution. Its EBIT was bolstered by the inclusion of Viterra assets (impact not specifically quantified), but management’s commentary seemed to imply that much of the yr/yr increase (>50%,…

Last week Bunge provided its eagerly anticipated earnings outlook update that incorporated Viterra. Based upon our conversations with investors, we believe the bar going into the day was $6.50 or lower (we were at $6.71,…

The global grains/oilseed complex is currently characterized by excess production and processing capacity. Trade tensions has exacerbated the imbalance for U.S. producers. A massive, sustained new demand driver is required – genetics and improved agronomic…

Today, we published a companion industry report that details our broader thoughts on current fundamentals and the Q4’25 and 2026 outlook. In this note, we detail our estimate changes for Bunge. We have reduced our…

BG reported a better-than-expected quarter – its late Q2 crush was not as locked up as we had assumed, and it was able to benefit from the surge in cash margins during the second half…

The medium-term outlook for BG’s legacy business is much improved given the prospect of much more supportive U.S. biofuel policy. However, Q2 was much more challenging than anticipated largely reflecting weaker-than-expected results in Brazil. As…

The recent RVO proposal laid out far more bullish targets than we had anticipated, and also put forward potential modifications to RIN values for imported fuels/feedstocks. That, combined with potential changes to 45Z rules, results…