Bunge Limited (BG)

The imminent changeover in Administrations is of greater import for our coverage universe than many other sectors as it portends material changes on multiple fronts, including regulatory policy (food and biofuels) and tariffs. Many of…

In an early September WSJ Op-Ed, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK) laid out prospective policy ideas that warrant examination given his nomination to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) – his nomination…

BG reported Q3 EPS upside driven, relative to HJR, largely by lower-than-expected corporate expense and a MTM tax true-up benefit. It tweaked guidance to ‘at least’ $9.25 from ~$9.25 despite lower-than-expected Q3 results and the…

Very elevated uncertainty is the overwhelming theme headed into Q3 earnings, whether that be related to biofuels policy (see our Ag Brief published yesterday), the Election or protein production. Below (cont’d pg 2) we offer…

Global, particularly domestic, biofuel markets are transitioning between two starkly different environments. U.S./European product/credit prices have been pressured by a weaker energy complex and excess credit inventories. Feedstock values have been stickier (much stronger yr/yr…

There have been shifts within the broader portfolio, but net/net, our Q3 view is not materially changed (up $0.01). Our full-yr estimate is higher, however, as the Q4 crush margin outlook is substantially improved. We…

Given the ferocity of Hurricane Helene’s winds and its drenching rains, damage to the broiler industry that is concentrated in the Southeast is to be expected. The industry is no stranger to hurricane damage as…

2024 has borne a striking resemblance to 2014/2015 – sharp contraction in cattle herd (bottomed in 2014, down 9% from 2007 peak), dropping feed costs, bird flu and supply challenges within the broiler industry. This…

Bunge’s Q2 came in much lower than we had projected ($1.73 vs $2.61). We had expected results to benefit from both a strong recovery in U.S. and Argentine crush margins, but it seems reports of…

Global ag is experiencing a hangover from the boom years of 2021 – 2023. Global supply is much looser, processing capacity continues to expand and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war has been largely blunted. …