Bunge Limited (BG)

Bunge’s Q3 results displayed the power of execution. Its EBIT was bolstered by the inclusion of Viterra assets (impact not specifically quantified), but management’s commentary seemed to imply that much of the yr/yr increase (>50%,…

Last week Bunge provided its eagerly anticipated earnings outlook update that incorporated Viterra. Based upon our conversations with investors, we believe the bar going into the day was $6.50 or lower (we were at $6.71,…

The global grains/oilseed complex is currently characterized by excess production and processing capacity. Trade tensions has exacerbated the imbalance for U.S. producers. A massive, sustained new demand driver is required – genetics and improved agronomic…

Today, we published a companion industry report that details our broader thoughts on current fundamentals and the Q4’25 and 2026 outlook. In this note, we detail our estimate changes for Bunge. We have reduced our…

BG reported a better-than-expected quarter – its late Q2 crush was not as locked up as we had assumed, and it was able to benefit from the surge in cash margins during the second half…

The medium-term outlook for BG’s legacy business is much improved given the prospect of much more supportive U.S. biofuel policy. However, Q2 was much more challenging than anticipated largely reflecting weaker-than-expected results in Brazil. As…

The recent RVO proposal laid out far more bullish targets than we had anticipated, and also put forward potential modifications to RIN values for imported fuels/feedstocks. That, combined with potential changes to 45Z rules, results…

Brazil’s farmers have long benefited from both the ability to produce 2-3 crops per year and relatively low land conversion costs. Technological improvements have fostered higher yields that have improved its cost profile further (BZ…

Bunge put up a materially stronger-than-expected Q1 due to lower-than-expected corporate expense and stronger Processing results. It maintained the full-year guide, but changed some components, including a material reduction in its full-year projected interest expense….

Extreme uncertainty continues to dominate the narrative into Q1 earnings, but the H2 bias has turned somewhat more positive. Consequently, we have updated our BG estimates – our 2025 goes to $7.75 ($7.69), while our…